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	<title>Canadian Funding Corp. and Moishe Alexander Review CMHC Reports &#187; sector</title>
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	<description>CMHC Reports Reviewed by Moishe Alexander</description>
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		<title>Housing Market Outlook Montréal CMA</title>
		<link>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-montreal-cma-2/</link>
		<comments>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-montreal-cma-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:11:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/?p=254</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After declining significantly at the beginning of the year, the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) housing market has been showing signs of picking up for the past few months. This increase in activity on the housing market is coinciding with an improvement in economic conditions, as several indicators are suggesting that economic growth will soon [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After declining significantly at the beginning of the year, the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) housing market has been showing signs of picking up for the past few months. This increase in activity on the housing market is coinciding with an improvement in economic conditions, as several indicators are suggesting that economic growth will soon resume. In this environment, the housing market will be relatively stable in 2010, for both residential construction and resale activity. </p>
<p>Economic conditions have substantially improved since the beginning of the year, as the financial crisis is largely over. Governments&#8217; expansionary monetary and fiscal policies allowed for the massive injection of capital that stabilized the financial markets and revitalized the economies.</p>
<p>In Quebec, the economy is showing signs of an imminent recovery, and GDP is expected to grow in 2010. Employment, which tends to start growing again with some lag behind the economic cycle, should pick up slowly during 2010. The number of jobs should fall by 1.3 per cent this year, which should drive up the unemployment rate to 9.5 per cent in the Montréal CMA. After having increased rapidly since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has been rising more slowly in the last few months, as employment has stabilized to a certain extent. Even if the worst of the job losses is now over, the labour market will remain anemic, with a small gain in jobs (+0.4 per cent) next year, which will limit income growth and housing demand. In 2010, the unemployment rate should reach 9.6 per cent.</p>
<p>During the period from September 2008 to September 2009, employment in the Montréal CMA declined by 1.1 per cent from the previous twelve months, as around 21,300 jobs were eliminated. The losses were concentrated in full-time jobs<br />
( 1.3 per cent), as part-time jobs rose slightly (+0.1 per cent). As well, the job cuts particularly affected young people aged from 15 to 24 years ( 3.5 per cent) and also people aged from 25 to 44 years ( 1.3 per cent).<br />
The financial sector has been the hardest hit by the job losses for the past year. In the midst of the crisis that shook the financial markets, the companies in this sector cut their workforces by more than 10 per cent in one year. In all, about 15,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector. The improvement of the situation on the financial markets now seems to have stemmed the hemorrhage of jobs in this sector.<br />
A more significant sector in terms of number of jobs, trade&#8211;and more particularly retail trade&#8211;also registered considerable job losses in the last twelve months ( 7 per cent). In fact, more than 16,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector, but the situation should stabilize over the coming quarters, as economic conditions improve.</p>
<p> After having declined for four consecutive years, employment in the manufacturing sector seems to have stabilized in recent quarters but, with the strong Canadian dollar, the recovery in this sector remains uncertain. The slowdown of the Montréal housing market at the beginning of 2009 sharply affected employment in the construction sector, which had posted two years of solid growth. The massive investments in infrastructure will support employment in this sector in the Montréal area in 2010. </p>
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		<title>Housing Market Outlook Montréal CMA</title>
		<link>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-montreal-cma/</link>
		<comments>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/11/housing-market-outlook-montreal-cma/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Nov 2009 18:09:47 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Posted by Moishe Alexander After declining significantly at the beginning of the year, the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) housing market has been showing signs of picking up for the past few months. This increase in activity on the housing market is coinciding with an improvement in economic conditions, as several indicators are suggesting that [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Posted by Moishe Alexander</p>
<p>After declining significantly at the beginning of the year, the Montréal census metropolitan area (CMA) housing market has been showing signs of picking up for the past few months. This increase in activity on the housing market is coinciding with an improvement in economic conditions, as several indicators are suggesting that economic growth will soon resume. In this environment, the housing market will be relatively stable in 2010, for both residential construction and resale activity.</p>
<p>Economic conditions have substantially improved since the beginning of the year, as the financial crisis is largely over. Governments&#8217; expansionary monetary and fiscal policies allowed for the massive injection of capital that stabilized the financial markets and revitalized the economies.</p>
<p>In Quebec, the economy is showing signs of an imminent recovery, and GDP is expected to grow in 2010. Employment, which tends to start growing again with some lag behind the economic cycle, should pick up slowly during 2010. The number of jobs should fall by 1.3 per cent this year, which should drive up the unemployment rate to 9.5 per cent in the Montréal CMA. After having increased rapidly since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has been rising more slowly in the last few months, as employment has stabilized to a certain extent. Even if the worst of the job losses is now over, the labour market will remain anemic, with a small gain in jobs (+0.4 per cent) next year, which will limit income growth and housing demand. In 2010, the unemployment rate should reach 9.6 per cent.</p>
<p>During the period from September 2008 to September 2009, employment in the Montréal CMA declined by 1.1 per cent from the previous twelve months, as around 21,300 jobs were eliminated. The losses were concentrated in full-time jobs<br />
( 1.3 per cent), as part-time jobs rose slightly (+0.1 per cent). As well, the job cuts particularly affected young people aged from 15 to 24 years ( 3.5 per cent) and also people aged from 25 to 44 years ( 1.3 per cent).<br />
The financial sector has been the hardest hit by the job losses for the past year. In the midst of the crisis that shook the financial markets, the companies in this sector cut their workforces by more than 10 per cent in one year. In all, about 15,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector. The improvement of the situation on the financial markets now seems to have stemmed the hemorrhage of jobs in this sector.<br />
A more significant sector in terms of number of jobs, trade&#8211;and more particularly retail trade&#8211;also registered considerable job losses in the last twelve months ( 7 per cent). In fact, more than 16,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector, but the situation should stabilize over the coming quarters, as economic conditions improve.</p>
<p>After having declined for four consecutive years, employment in the manufacturing sector seems to have stabilized in recent quarters but, with the strong Canadian dollar, the recovery in this sector remains uncertain. The slowdown of the Montréal housing market at the beginning of 2009 sharply affected employment in the construction sector, which had posted two years of solid growth. The massive investments in infrastructure will support employment in this sector in the Montréal area in 2010.</p>
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		<title>Moishe Alexander add the revew: “Statistics Canada Labour Survey”</title>
		<link>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/06/moishe-alexander-add-the-revew-%e2%80%9cstatistics-canada-labour-survey%e2%80%9d/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jun 2009 16:48:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/?p=104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of last October, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1%. While there were pronounced losses in Ontario in May, employment increased in Manitoba, Nova Scotia [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="item_class_text">
<p style="text-align: justify;">Following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of last October, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1%.</p>
<p><a href="http://torontorealestatetrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/c090605a1.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1098" title="c090605a1" src="http://torontorealestatetrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/c090605a1.gif" alt="c090605a1" width="318" height="337" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">While there were pronounced losses in Ontario in May, employment increased in Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan, and was little changed in all other provinces.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">In addition to manufacturing losses in May, transportation and warehousing also declined. Public administration was the only industry with a notable employment increase.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Employment declines in May affected mostly men and women aged 25 to 54, while there were employment increases among women aged 55 and over.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">There were large declines in full-time employment (-59,000) in May, bringing total full-time losses since October to 406,000 (-2.9%). Over the same period, part-time employment has continued to trend up, increasing by 44,000 (+1.4%).</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The average hourly wage for employees was 3.4% higher in May compared with the same month a year earlier, the lowest year-over-year increase in two years.</p>
<p><a href="http://torontorealestatetrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/c090605b.gif"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1096" title="c090605b" src="http://torontorealestatetrends.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/c090605b.gif" alt="c090605b" width="318" height="357" /></a></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Continued employment losses in Ontario</span></p>
<p>Ontario was the only province to experience a substantial employment decline in May, down 60,000, bringing total losses since last October to 234,000 or 3.5%. While Ontario accounts for 39% of the total working-age population, it has experienced 64% of overall employment losses since the start of the labour market downturn.</p>
<p>Ontario’s unemployment rate in May rose by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 9.4%, the highest in 15 years.</p>
<p>In May, both manufacturing and construction employment continued their downward trend in Ontario. Since October, the number of workers in manufacturing has fallen by 14.0%, while it has decreased by 9.3% in construction.</p>
<p>Employment in Quebec was unchanged in May. An increase in labour force participation pushed the unemployment rate up to 8.7%. Since last October, employment is down by 0.7% in Quebec.</p>
<p>Manitoba and Saskatchewan added employment in May with gains of 3,900 and 3,100 respectively. Both provinces had an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in the country, and are the only two provinces with an increase in employment since last October.</p>
<p>Following declines in the two previous months, employment increased by 3,600 in Nova Scotia in May.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Sharp decline in manufacturing employment</span></p>
<p>Manufacturing employment continued on its downward trend with a decline of 58,000 in May, mostly in Ontario. This brings losses since October to 186,000 or 9.4%, with the largest decline in transportation equipment manufacturing. Ontario has experienced the brunt of overall manufacturing losses over this period.</p>
<p>In May 2009, there were 778,000 factory workers in Ontario, the lowest level since comparable data became available in 1976. Manufacturing employment in Ontario reached a peak in November 2002 with 1,115,000 workers.</p>
<p>There was also a decline in transportation and warehousing (-16,000) in May, bringing total losses in that industry to 48,000 (-5.5%) since October. Public administration was the only industry with notable gains in May, up 19,000.</p>
<p>Self-employment fell by 32,000 in May, offsetting the gain in April. The number of private sector employees continued to decline, down 36,000 in May, while public sector employment was up 27,000, largely driven by the gains in public administration.</p>
<p>Since October, the number of private sector employees has fallen by 2.9% and public sector employment has declined by 1.3%. Over the same period, the number of self-employed has shown little change.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Fewer people aged 25 to 54 working</span></p>
<p>Employment fell by 50,000 in May for persons aged 25 to 54, with losses of 28,000 among men and 22,000 among women. Since the start of the labour market downturn, however, it is men in this age group who have experienced most of the losses, down 3.4%, while employment among core-age women has fallen by 1.1% over the same period.</p>
<p>Employment for women aged 55 and over increased in May, up 16,000. Since last October, employment among older women has risen by 3.1%, while employment for older men has shown little change.</p>
<p>Although employment edged down among youths aged 15 to 24 in May, losses for this group have been substantial during the current labour market downturn, with losses since last October totalling 134,000 or 5.1%. In May, the unemployment rate for youths climbed to 14.9%, the highest rate since 1999.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">A difficult start to the summer for students aged 20 to 24</span></p>
<p>From May to August, the Labour Force Survey collects labour market information about young people aged 15 to 24 who were attending school full-time in March and who intend to return to school in the fall. The May survey results provide the first indicators of the summer job market, especially for students aged 20 to 24, as students aged 15 to 19 were not yet out of school for the summer. The data for June, July and August will provide further insight into the summer job market. The published estimates are not seasonally adjusted; therefore comparisons can only be made from one year to another.</p>
<p>The summer job market started in May for students aged 20 to 24. The number of employed students fell by 59,000 compared with a year earlier, all in full time. At the same time, their participation in the labour force fell substantially from 75.2% to 68.6%. May’s unemployment rate was 18.3% for this group of students, compared with 15.4% in May 2008.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">Full Report Available here:</p>
<p style="text-align: center;">http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090605/dq090605a-eng.htm</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">
<p style="text-align: center;">
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		<title>Moishe Alexander’s review of the Kitchener and Guelph Rental Market and CMHC Outlook Report Fall 2008</title>
		<link>http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/2009/02/moishe-alexander%e2%80%99s-review-of-the-kitchener-and-guelph-rental-market-and-cmhc-outlook-report-fall-2008/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 02:35:21 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[February 24, 2009 &#8212; Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting the Kitchener and Guelph Rental Market Moishe Alexander’s Review Highlights Moishe Alexander says The average vacancy rate in the Kitchener CMA moved lower to 1.8 per cent. In the Guelph CMA, the average vacancy rate moved [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>February 24, 2009 &#8212; <em>Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting the Kitchener and Guelph Rental Market</em></p>
<p><strong>Moishe Alexander’s Review</strong></p>
<p><strong>Highlights<br />
</strong><br />
Moishe Alexander says The average vacancy rate in the Kitchener CMA moved lower to 1.8 per cent. In the Guelph CMA, the average vacancy rate moved higher to 2.3 per cent. A number of factors which include a younger population, immigration, employment and less movement of renters to homeownership contributed to the change in rental demand. Rental housing demand will increase slightly in 2009. The vacancy rate will edge lower to 1.6 per cent in the Kitchener CMA and to two per cent in the Guelph CMA.</p>
<p><strong>Minimal Changes in Rental Demand in Kitchener and Guelph</strong></p>
<p><strong>Vacancy Rate Lower in Kitchener/Higher in Guelph</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Demand for rental apartments in the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs moved in opposite directions. A small increase in demand contributed to a decline in the average vacancy rate for privately initiated rental apartments in the Kitchener CMA to 1.8 per cent from 2.7 per cent in 2007.  In the Guelph CMA, demand eased and the vacancy rate increased to 2.3 per cent from 1.9 per cent last year.  Although higher, the vacancy rate this year was still well below the levels seen in the five-year period between 2002 and 2006 when the vacancy rate averaged close to 3.3 per cent.<br />
A number of factors, both demographic and economic, contributed to the changes in rental demand. In both Kitchener and Guelph, these factors include a younger population, strong immigration, youth employment, little employment growth and less movement of renters to homeownership.</p>
<p><strong>Lower First-time Buyer Demand</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Many renter households took advantage of low mortgage rates throughout this decade and the longer amortization periods after 2006 and as a result, pent-up demand is largely satisfied and fewer renter households are planning to buy a home. House prices continue to rise and are discouraging some renter households from moving into homeownership. Some renter households may delay their home purchase as a consequence and remain in their rental accommodation for a longer period.</p>
<p>This lower first-time buyer demand is more pronounced in the Kitchener CMA as the difference between owning a home and renting an apartment is higher. In the Guelph CMA, steady job creation coupled with low borrowing costs enabled a lower but steady movement of first-time buyers into home ownership.</p>
<p><strong>Population Characteristics Affect Demand</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says A young population, a high level of immigration and declining household size contributed to the increased rental demand this year in the Kitchener CMA. These factors also kept demand in the Guelph CMA at a relatively strong level.</p>
<p>According to the 2006 Census, the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs have young populations compared to the Ontario average. Younger households are more likely to rent than older age groups. A large student population and a strong high-tech sector have contributed to the high youth presence and strong demand for rental housing. As well, many young people who gain full-time employment will move out of their parental home into rental accommodation. In the Kitchener CMA, while overall employment for those aged 15-24 has fallen, more than 1,200 full-time jobs in this age group have been created in the CMA in the last year encouraging youth household formation. In the Guelph CMA, while overall employment for those aged 15-24 has declined marginally, full-time jobs in this age group have fallen, limiting the formation of youth rental households.</p>
<p>In the 12 months ending June 30, 2007, more than 3,000 immigrants made their new home in the Kitchener CMA. Due to a high employment rate and relatively more affordable home prices and rents compared to the GTA, immigrants find the Kitchener CMA an attractive place to live. A large proportion of persons new to Canada will initially rent as it takes time to gain employment, establish a credit rating and save for a down payment.</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Smaller household size added to the demand for rental housing. According to the 2006 Census, one-person, lone-parent and couples without children households increased at a higher rate than couples with children households. A higher percentage of these smaller-sized households rent. The oldest baby-boomers are now in their sixties and many are looking to downsize. Renting is a viable option.</p>
<p><strong>Resilient Local Economies</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says The local area economies have remained resilient despite uncertainty in global financial markets and a weak US economy.</p>
<p>Although job growth has slowed in the Kitchener CMA, employment has remained at a high level. Job uncertainty and less confidence in the economy have delayed some renter households’ decision to purchase a home. However, for the first three quarters of 2008, employment in the Kitchener CMA grew by 2.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2007. All of the job gains were in full-time employment. While the goods-producing sector continues to be a drag on the local economy, the services sector continues to add jobs.</p>
<p>In the Guelph CMA, employment has remained at a high level with job growth of more than six per cent in the first ten months of this year compared to the same period in 2007.  With strong job growth in the 25-44 and 45-64 age groups, some renter households in these age groups were able to purchase a home.</p>
<p><strong>Condominium Apartment Completions</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Condominiums are a more affordable type of housing compared to single detached homes and are a viable alternative to renting for first-time buyers. More than 80 condominium apartments were completed in the Guelph CMA this year. First-time buyers and empty-nesters, who may otherwise have rented an apartment, are attracted to this type of ownership housing. In the Kitchener CMA, only 50 condominium apartments were completed in the same period.</p>
<p><strong>Rent Growth Below Inflation</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says The percentage change of average rent from fixed sample is 0.9 per cent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Kitchener CMA and 1.6 per cent in the Guelph CMA. This measure is strictly based on structures that were common to the survey sample for both the 2007 and 2008 surveys. For the Kitchener CMA, this increase was well below the Residential Tenancies Act (RTA) guideline for 2007 of 1.4 per cent.  As well, this increase was below the inflation rate. In the Guelph CMA this increase was slightly above the RTA guideline for 2007, but below the inflation rate.</p>
<p><strong>Rental Supply Declines In Kitchener</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says At 174, the number of purpose-built rental apartments completed in the Kitchener CMA since June 2007 was somewhat lower than usual. Over the last five years, the number of new rental apartments completed has averaged about 650 annually.  Despite this additional supply, the private rental apartment universe decreased by 184 units because some apartments were converted to other uses. With more than 800 rental apartments under construction currently, completions next year will be more in line with the longerterm average.</p>
<p>No purpose-built rental apartments were completed in the Guelph CMA since June 2007. As a result, the private rental apartment universe remained unchanged this year.</p>
<p><strong>Low Vacancy Rates for One and Two-Bedroom Apartments</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says The vacancy rate for all bedroom types of rental apartments decreased in the Kitchener CMA The majority of private rental apartments are one and two-bedroom units. These two unit types accounted for 93 per cent of the total apartment rental universe and have the lowest vacancy rate at 1.8 per cent. The one-bedroom apartment vacancy rate edged lower to 1.8 per cent from 2.2 per cent a year ago, while the two-bedroom apartment vacancy rate declined more significantly from 2.9 per cent to 1.8 per continent</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says A more than 100 unit decline in the supply of two-bedroom apartments combined with increased rental demand pushed the vacancy rate down to this level, the lowest since 2001. The widening gap between the average principal and interest payment for a resale home and the average two-bedroom rent has impacted some renters’ interest in moving into homeownership. With the more diverse financing options available after 2006, many first-time buyers were able to enter the resale market earlier than would normally have been expected, resulting in lower demand for homeownership from current renters.</p>
<p><strong>Affordability Indicator</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says According to CMHC’s rental affordablility indicator, affordablility in Kitchener’s rental market increased this year. The rental affordability indicator in Kitchener stands at 108 for 2008, up from 101 in 2007. The 2007 indicator was the lowest level of affordability Kitchener has seen in the thirteen years for which the indicator is available. The rental affordability indicator is not available for Guelph due to a lack of required data for that centre.<br />
Rental Market Outlook: 2009</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Rental housing demand will increase slightly in 2009. The vacancy rate will edge lower to 1.6 per cent in the Kitchener CMA and to two per cent in the Guelph CMA. In the Kitchener CMA, demand for rental accommodation in 2009 will be boosted by immigration, rental household growth and little movement into homeownership. Migrants will continue to be attracted to the CMA due to its relatively stronger economy compared to other Ontario CMAs.</p>
<p>On balance, population will increase by 2,500 next year due to international migration. Immigrants represent more than 50 per cent of the net population increase due to migration. They tend to rent when they first move to Canada. Due to the expected lower job growth and uncertain economic conditions, more renter households will delay their plans to move into homeownership.  Although the gap between average rent and average mortgage carrying cost will narrow somewhat in 2009, the number of rental households will continue to grow. In the Kitchener CMA, with few new condominium apartments being built, younger, downsizing and aging households have little alternative but to rent.  On the supply side, with more than 800 rental apartments under construction in the Kitchener CMA, rental completions will be more in line with the historical average in 2009. This increased supply will partially offset the higher demand.  In the Guelph CMA, although 177 rental apartments are currently under construction, no new rental apartments will be completed by next October. With higher demand and no new supply, the rental market will tighten. On the other hand, with more new condominium apartment completions next year, some renter households will be able to move to ownership housing in this more affordable type of housing. As well, due to less than optimistic job prospects, some youth will remain in their parental home longer.</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says With the vacancy rate in both CMAs expected to be below its 20-year average in 2009, there will be slightly more room to raise rents. In both CMAs, rent increases in 2009 will be in line with the Residential Tenancies Act guideline for occupied units of 1.8 per cent.</p>
<p>You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:<br />
<a href="http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64399/64399_2008_A01.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64399/64399_2008_A01.pdf</a></p>
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		<title>Moishe Alexander’s review of the Gatineau Housing Market and CMHC Outlook Report Fall 2008</title>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Feb 2009 00:47:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[February 24, 2009 &#8212; Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Gatineau Housing Market Moishe Alexander’s Review: Pace of residential construction to moderate in 2009 after peaking in 2008 Moishe Alexander says This year will end with more housing starts than in 2007 in the Gatineau area. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>February 24, 2009 &#8212; <em>Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Gatineau Housing Market</em></p>
<p><strong>Moishe Alexander’s Review:</strong></p>
<p><strong>Pace of residential construction to moderate in 2009 after peaking in 2008</strong></p>
<div id="attachment_40" class="wp-caption alignleft" style="width: 160px"><img class="size-thumbnail wp-image-40" title="2088722938_241e16afd4" src="http://canadian-funding-corp-cmhc.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/2088722938_241e16afd4-150x150.jpg" alt="Gatineau Quebec - Credit Abdallahh, Flickr Creative Commons" width="150" height="150" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Gatineau Quebec - Credit Abdallahh, Flickr Creative Commons</p></div>
<p>Moishe Alexander says This year will end with more housing starts than in 2007 in the Gatineau area. Already, for the first nine months of the year, the CMHC survey results show that starts are up 2 per cent compared to the same period in 2007. This upward trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter and bring the annual starts total to 3,000 units, for an increase of almost 8 per cent over 2007.</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Only in 2009 will construction begin to ease in the Gatineau area. In fact, there should be 400 fewer starts in 2009 than in 2008, which will bring the number of new units back down to 2,600. As Canada’s economic growth will be weaker than anticipated this year, consumers will be more inclined to save. However, the area’s economic structure, about 40 per cent of which is based on the public sector, and the strong job creation observed since the beginning of the year will maintain housing starts at high levels in the Gatineau area. In fact, their volume will be above the average for the last ten years.</p>
<p><strong>Gatineau residents will be busy in 2009</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says A closer look at the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau census metropolitan area (CMA) reveals that the economic fundamentals remain strong for the moment. In the past year, almost 10,000 jobs were created in the area, two thirds of them full-time. This is good news for the real estate market, as it is mainly these jobs that fuel potential demand. Another benefit for the housing market is that the employment gains were registered mostly in the public service, a stable and well-paying sector, as well as in the professional and technical services and trade sectors. Slight decreases were observed, however, in the communications, transportation and construction sectors. Overall, the good performance of the labour market brought down the unemployment rate to slightly less than 5 per cent in the last few months and raised the employment rate to 70.3 per cent in September—the best result in the province.<br />
Moishe Alexander says The economic boom enjoyed by the National Capital Region will continue to stimulate real estate activity in 2009. Employment will grow, but at a slower pace, and will be driven in part by the implementation of the Quebec government’s infrastructure plan, under which the Outaouais region will receive $200 million for roadwork from now until the end of 2009. The health and social services sector will also generate employment, thanks to a 4.5-percent budget increase. In the federal public service, the slowdown of the Canadian economy could make it difficult for the government to balance the budget and cause it to stop in the wave of hiring that began in the area a year ago. The impact of such a measure would be limited, though, as retirements will continue to increase in this sector, leaving the door open to more hiring.</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says On the external economic front, Gatineau will manage to escape the international turmoil. Given its limited economic trade with foreign countries, the area will be fairly immune to the global ups and downs. In fact, the Outaouais region only has about 70 exporting companies whose products represent just 1 per cent of the overall value of Quebec’s exports of goods. Even if the economic conditions south of the border are barely affecting the Gatineau regional economy, they will have effects on certain industrial sectors, including lumber and pulp and paper, which are currently going through a very difficult period. Finally, the recent weakening of the Canadian dollar will help certain exporting companies do relatively well.</p>
<p><strong>Net migration still positive in the area</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Since 2001, the Gatineau region has recorded net positive migration. For the last five years, the annual average number of in-migrants has exceeded 11,000, while the annual average number of out-migrants has remained constant, at about 9,000.  Net migration reached 2,203 people in 2007 and should remain close to 2,200 people in 2008 and 2009.  Newcomers will come mainly from other regions of Quebec and from other countries. The Gatineau area will still attract people from other provinces, particularly Ontario, but will see as many individuals leave.<br />
Moishe Alexander says The wave of Ontarians crossing the Ottawa River that was observed at the beginning of the decade has lost some momentum since 2006. Finally, good employment prospects in the area, compared to other Quebec regions, will keep attracting people to Gatineau in 2009. However, Quebecers settling in the National Capital Region are increasingly opting for the Ontario side of the CMA.  In 2007, more than half of them chose the west bank of the Ottawa River. This trend is pushing down net migration, which would be otherwise higher in the Gatineau area.<br />
Moishe Alexander says Positive net migration, combined with natural population growth, will add about 3,500 people to the Gatineau area population in 2009.  Favourable labour market conditions and a new government policy to progressively increase the international immigration target for Quebec to 55,000 people by 2010 (from the current level of 49,000 people) will help keep net migration positive. Numerous advantages granted to parents of preschool-age children, such as parental leaves, child benefits and the new subsidized child care spaces that will be created over the next four years, will quicken the pace of family formation—families with their own housing needs.</p>
<p><strong>Single-detached houses losing ground to multiple family housing</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says The impact of the price increases in the last few years and the moderate growth of the Canadian economy will be greater for single-detached housing construction, especially in the upper-range segment. Buyers will be pickier; they will be looking for more affordable homes, such as semi-detached or row houses, or for existing properties. Tighter credit conditions will also reinforce this trend, with Canadian financial institutions now demonstrating more caution before granting credit to lenders. While multiple-family (semi-detached, row and condominium) housing starts will increase by 8 per cent this year, single-detached home starts will only rise by 1 per cent. Despite the expected decline, multiple housing starts will see their market share increase, from 46 per cent five years ago to over 67 per cent in 2009. The faster rise in the average price of single-detached houses caused demand to shift toward more affordable housing types. In 2007, the gap, at the time of absorption, between the average prices of singledetached and semi-detached houses was over $91,000, compared to $60,000 four years earlier. For firsttime buyers, the type of housing that they must choose is more obvious.</p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says As a result of this price gap, multiple housing will stay popular. Semidetached and row home building will remain stable next year, while apartment construction should moderate slightly. It is anticipated that the volume of new condominiums will remain significant in 2009, despite a decrease in the rental housing segment. In fact, over the past few years, the supply of rental housing for seniors has increased more rapidly than the population aged 75 years or older.<br />
The vacancy rate for this type of housing is on the rise, making waiting lists a thing of the past. The anticipated completion of over 400 retirement housing units in 2009 will strengthen this trend and could lead to a temporary reduction in starts. As well, units are managing to be absorbed within less than eight months after completion.  The strong demand for affordable homes will keep the semi-detached housing price curve above inflation.  The price of single-detached houses will climb again in 2009, but at a rate similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).<br />
Moishe Alexander says Since 2007, Aylmer has been the sector with the highest volume of starts, and the same will hold true in 2009. In 2001, Aylmer ranked last in terms of housing starts among the three large sectors of the municipality of Gatineau but has since been steadily gaining in popularity. Improvements made to the road network and the redevelopment of many lots along the new major thoroughfare (Des Allumettières Boulevard) are attracting buyers.</p>
<p><strong>Mortgage Rates</strong></p>
<p>Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.</p>
<p>You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:<br />
<a href="http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64287/64287_2008_B02.pdf " target="_blank">http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64287/64287_2008_B02.pdf </a></p>
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