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Royal Lepage First Time Home Buyers Report: “AFFORDABILITY AND JOB SECURITY MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS FOR FIRST TIME HOMEBUYERS”


Canadians who are considering purchasing their first home are primarily motivated by lower home prices and very low interest rates, but some require confidence in the economy and their employment prospects before they will enter the market, according to a report released today by Royal LePage Real Estate Services. Eighty-six per cent of potential first-time buyers say low interest rates make them more likely to purchase a home; 81 per cent cite lower housing prices as a motivating factor; while 76 per cent cite job security and 64 per cent say a stable economy is an important factor in their decision to buy.

Potential buyers were asked to rank their top incentives for purchasing a first property. While home prices and interest rates took the number one and two rankings, respectively, the third most popular incentive was the First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit. The recently introduced Home Renovation Tax Credit for 2009 was cited by 42 per cent of potential first-time buyers as either ‘very likely’ or ‘somewhat likely’ to impact their purchasing decision.

“When first time buyers stepped out of the market in the fourth quarter of 2008, at the height of the global recession, their absence was profoundly felt.  Without significant volumes of entry-level homes trading hands, the entire market limped through the winter months.   First time buyers are back in force this spring, and with them the beginnings of a market recovery.  While these consumers appreciate government incentives such as tax credits, greater RSP deduction limits and rebates on home renovations, it is markedly improved affordability that is proving to be the powerful drawing card,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive of Royal LePage Real Estate Services. “Our survey demonstrates how important affordability factors such as interest rates and house prices are in stimulating demand.”

Across the country, potential first-time homebuyers agreed that affordability was their top consideration, however the survey also revealed differences amongst buyers in various regions of Canada. In provinces such as British Columbia where high housing prices have kept some buyers out of the market in recent years, 92 per cent of potential first-time buyers are now motivated by low interest rates and 96 per cent say lower home prices are likely to prompt them to buy.

In Atlantic Canada, where local economies have been resilient in the face of a worldwide recession and housing markets remain stable, 43 per cent of first-time buyers say they that job security is a factor in their decision to buy, while 84 per cent of buyers in British Columbia and Alberta said job security will influence them.

Atlantic Canadians were less motivated than other Canadians by declining interest rates, with only 72 per cent saying it will likely prompt a buying decision, compared to 86 per cent of Canadians overall. Buyers in Ontario and Quebec rated the Home Renovation Tax Credit as a bigger factor in their buying decision, compared to the Canadian average.

Mr Soper continued, “The significant response differences from region to region show how closely the residential real estate market is tied to broader economic trends and consumer confidence. Buying your first home is a major life decision, and people are more likely to purchase a home if they feel comfortable about the state of the economy and confident that they will have a job to support their new mortgage obligation.”

Top Incentives for First-Time Buyers across Canada
Potential first-time buyers were asked to choose their number one incentive for purchasing a first property. The table shows the percentage of respondents who selected each factor as their top incentive.

Overall

BC &
Territories

Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Lower Housing Prices
33% 49% 48% 55% 32% 13% 26%
Low Interest Rates
27% 32% 29% 4% 23% 41% 17%
First-Time Home Buyers’ Tax Credit 12% 3% 10% 22% 15% 11% 10%
Job Security
10% 6% 5% 2% 10% 16% 15%
Additional Government Actions to Stabilize Housing Markets
3% 3% <1% 10% 3% 4% <1%
Home Renovation Tax Credit
2% 1% <1% 1% 1% 3% 11%
Stable Economy
2% 2% <1% <1% 3% 2% <1%
Greater RSP Deduction Limits
1% <1% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1%
Stable Financial Markets
<1% <1% <1% <1% 1% <1% <1%

REGIONAL SUMMARIES

Atlantic
Overall activity in the housing market has remained steady in the Atlantic region with first-time homebuyers continuing to enter the market.  Low interest rates and recent government incentives, such as the Home Renovation Tax Credit, greater RSP deduction limits and the First-Time Homebuyer’s Tax Credit speak to affordability.  Buyers in this area are entering the market that would not have a few years ago, due to these influencing factors. Entry-level buyers in Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia continue to search for detached bungalows, with the average price ranging from $157,000 in Charlottetown to $215,667 in Halifax during the first quarter of 2009.

Quebec
First-time buyers continue to pursue the dream of home ownership in Montreal, as the number of entrants to the housing market has remained relatively stable. Low interest rates are contributing to increased market entry with 41 per cent of first-time buyers suggesting this is the key incentive driving the purchase of their first property, followed by 13 per cent who suggest lower housing prices might influence their buying decision. With 47 per cent of new buyers in Quebec planning to settle in urban areas, buyers are planning to invest and live in their first home for ten or more years.  Fifty-six per cent of first-time buyers hope to purchase a property in the $150,000 to $300,000 price range.

Ontario
Encouraged by recent government initiatives, home ownership in Ontario is becoming a reality for an increasing number of younger purchasers.  Across Ontario, 36 per cent of potential first-time buyers are most likely to purchase property in an urban setting.  Condominiums continue to attract first-time buyers in the Greater Toronto Area with urban communities at accessible price points appealing most to market newcomers. In addition to affordability, location is a leading factor dictating condominium appeal. Neighbourhoods in Toronto’s east and west downtown core are popular with first-time buyers. In Ottawa, affordability continues to drive activity and most first-time buyers are opting to purchase in suburban areas where properties typically cost $50,000 to $75,000 less than in the city centre. Active first-time buyer markets include Orleans, Barrhaven and Kanata.

Manitoba & Saskatchewan
Thirty per cent of Prairie buyers planning on purchasing their first home in the next three years will choose a detached bungalow. The second-most popular choice for first-time buyers is condominiums at 21 per cent, followed by detached two-story homes at 15 per cent. In Winnipeg, up-and-coming neighbourhoods for first-time buyers include River Heights – which has traditionally been attractive for people entering the market – Fraser’s Grove and East / North Caldonin. With a good selection of older bungalows and two story homes, Broders Annex is the hottest neighbourhood for first-time buyers in Regina.

Alberta
Alberta’s urban centres continue to be popular with first-time buyers, who make up nearly a third of home sales in both Calgary and Edmonton. Condominiums and detached bungalows are the most popular choices for first-time buyers in Edmonton, where lower housing prices and low interest rates are the biggest incentives for buyers entering the market for the first time. Popular areas for new buyers include the suburbs, where a new condominium may be within budget, the university area, where many parents are buying for their kids, Allendale and McKernan. In Calgary, new buyers are most interested in inner city condominiums and detached houses in the suburbs, with many seeking new or renovated homes.

British Columbia
With home prices either flat or declining in many communities in British Columbia and with interest rates at record lows, first-time buyers are taking advantage of greater affordability, with female buyers leading the trend. Sixty per cent of the buyers getting into BC’s housing market for the first time are women. In British Columbia, 40 per cent of prospective first-time buyers intend to purchase a ‘fixer-upper’ while 80 per cent would take advantage of the Federal Government’s Home Renovation Tax Credit in making upgrades to a home. First-time buyers in Vancouver are favouring condominiums and townhomes, however an increasing number of entry-level buyers are finding affordable detached homes outside the city in the Fraser Valley suburbs.

The survey portion of the Royal LePage First-Time Homebuyers’ Report was conducted by Pollara from April 29, 2009 to May 8, 2009 among 474 first-time homebuyers in Canada. The online survey was conducted among a randomly-selected sample of 474 adult Canadians who are likely to purchase their first home in the next 3 years.  A probability sample of this size with a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 %, 19 times out of 20. The data was statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional and age/gender composition reflects the actual Canadian population according to the most recent Census data.

http://torontorealestatetrends.com/royal-lepage-first-time-home-buyers-report/

reported by Moishe Alexander, CFC CEO

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Moishe Alexander add the revew: “Statistics Canada Labour Survey”


Following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of last October, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1%.

c090605a1

While there were pronounced losses in Ontario in May, employment increased in Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan, and was little changed in all other provinces.

In addition to manufacturing losses in May, transportation and warehousing also declined. Public administration was the only industry with a notable employment increase.

Employment declines in May affected mostly men and women aged 25 to 54, while there were employment increases among women aged 55 and over.

There were large declines in full-time employment (-59,000) in May, bringing total full-time losses since October to 406,000 (-2.9%). Over the same period, part-time employment has continued to trend up, increasing by 44,000 (+1.4%).

The average hourly wage for employees was 3.4% higher in May compared with the same month a year earlier, the lowest year-over-year increase in two years.

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Continued employment losses in Ontario

Ontario was the only province to experience a substantial employment decline in May, down 60,000, bringing total losses since last October to 234,000 or 3.5%. While Ontario accounts for 39% of the total working-age population, it has experienced 64% of overall employment losses since the start of the labour market downturn.

Ontario’s unemployment rate in May rose by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 9.4%, the highest in 15 years.

In May, both manufacturing and construction employment continued their downward trend in Ontario. Since October, the number of workers in manufacturing has fallen by 14.0%, while it has decreased by 9.3% in construction.

Employment in Quebec was unchanged in May. An increase in labour force participation pushed the unemployment rate up to 8.7%. Since last October, employment is down by 0.7% in Quebec.

Manitoba and Saskatchewan added employment in May with gains of 3,900 and 3,100 respectively. Both provinces had an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in the country, and are the only two provinces with an increase in employment since last October.

Following declines in the two previous months, employment increased by 3,600 in Nova Scotia in May.

Sharp decline in manufacturing employment

Manufacturing employment continued on its downward trend with a decline of 58,000 in May, mostly in Ontario. This brings losses since October to 186,000 or 9.4%, with the largest decline in transportation equipment manufacturing. Ontario has experienced the brunt of overall manufacturing losses over this period.

In May 2009, there were 778,000 factory workers in Ontario, the lowest level since comparable data became available in 1976. Manufacturing employment in Ontario reached a peak in November 2002 with 1,115,000 workers.

There was also a decline in transportation and warehousing (-16,000) in May, bringing total losses in that industry to 48,000 (-5.5%) since October. Public administration was the only industry with notable gains in May, up 19,000.

Self-employment fell by 32,000 in May, offsetting the gain in April. The number of private sector employees continued to decline, down 36,000 in May, while public sector employment was up 27,000, largely driven by the gains in public administration.

Since October, the number of private sector employees has fallen by 2.9% and public sector employment has declined by 1.3%. Over the same period, the number of self-employed has shown little change.

Fewer people aged 25 to 54 working

Employment fell by 50,000 in May for persons aged 25 to 54, with losses of 28,000 among men and 22,000 among women. Since the start of the labour market downturn, however, it is men in this age group who have experienced most of the losses, down 3.4%, while employment among core-age women has fallen by 1.1% over the same period.

Employment for women aged 55 and over increased in May, up 16,000. Since last October, employment among older women has risen by 3.1%, while employment for older men has shown little change.

Although employment edged down among youths aged 15 to 24 in May, losses for this group have been substantial during the current labour market downturn, with losses since last October totalling 134,000 or 5.1%. In May, the unemployment rate for youths climbed to 14.9%, the highest rate since 1999.

A difficult start to the summer for students aged 20 to 24

From May to August, the Labour Force Survey collects labour market information about young people aged 15 to 24 who were attending school full-time in March and who intend to return to school in the fall. The May survey results provide the first indicators of the summer job market, especially for students aged 20 to 24, as students aged 15 to 19 were not yet out of school for the summer. The data for June, July and August will provide further insight into the summer job market. The published estimates are not seasonally adjusted; therefore comparisons can only be made from one year to another.

The summer job market started in May for students aged 20 to 24. The number of employed students fell by 59,000 compared with a year earlier, all in full time. At the same time, their participation in the labour force fell substantially from 75.2% to 68.6%. May’s unemployment rate was 18.3% for this group of students, compared with 15.4% in May 2008.

Full Report Available here:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/090605/dq090605a-eng.htm

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Moishe Alexander’s review of the Canada Housing Market and CMHC Outlook Report fall 2008


February 24, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Canada Housing Market

Moishe Alexander’s Review:

Housing Market Starting to Ease

Canada - Credit Rick Harris, Flickr Creative Commons

Canada - Credit Rick Harris, Flickr Creative Commons

Housing starts: The multi-family sector will keep residential construction strong this year despite a slow down in single-detached activity.  Housing starts this year will remain above the 200,000 unit mark for a seventh consecutive year before dipping to 177,975 units in 2009.

Resales: Rising house prices in recent years have cooled resale activity. Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service®1 (MLS®) are forecast to fall 13.6 per cent this year compared to last year’s record level, then ease an additional 4.2 per cent in 2009.

Resale prices: Record levels of new listings this year have reduced the upward price pressures that prevailed over the previous six years. As sales of existing homes moderate and new listing continue to increase, the average MLS® price growth this year is expected to ease to 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per cent increase in 2009.

Saskatchewan: The natural resource sector will sustain economic growth in Saskatchewan. Net migration turned positive in 2007, after 22 years of negative net flows. The economy and shift in migration are key factors driving provincial housing starts in 2009.

British Columbia: Economic expansion and job creation will outperform the national average both this year and next. Despite the province’s growing population and job numbers, a well-supplied resale home market will offer more choice to home shoppers and moderate new home demand. By 2009, housing starts will have moved back toward their long term average.
National Housing Outlook:

In Detail

Moishe Alexander says Housing starts this year will remain above the 200,000 unit mark for a seventh consecutive year as slowing construction of single-detached homes is partially offset by growth in multiples. Housing starts will fall 7.1 per cent to 212,188 units in 2008, then dip an additional 16.1 per cent to 177,975 units in 2009. Even with the slow down, new home construction in 2008-2009 will remain strong in a historical context.
The new home market is moderating due to three key factors. First, strong house price growth over the last six years has tempered home ownership demand particularly in Western Canada. Second, the record high levels of new listings has increased the competition from the existing home market and reduced spillover demand.  Third, pent-up demand that built up during the 1990s is nearly exhausted and new home construction will become more aligned with long run demographic demand.
Housing starts will moderate in seven of the ten provinces in 2008, particularly in Western Canada. In Alberta, housing starts are expected to decline by a third compared to the previous year and be more in line with activity in 2001. Higher housing starts this year in Ontario, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland will partially offset the moderating pace in the other seven provinces.
As for 2009, national housing starts are forecast to dip below the 200,000 unit mark.

Higher prices moderate demand for single detached housing

Moishe Alexander says The rising house prices of previous years will moderate single-detached housing starts where activity is forecast to dip below the 100,000 unit mark. Single-detached starts will decrease 20.7 per cent to 94,263 units in 2008, then drop an additional 11.3 per cent to 83,600 units next year coming off of 10 years of high levels. For 2009, Alberta will post higher single-detached housing starts, increasing 3.4 per cent, while the remaining provinces will see singles move lower. In Saskatchewan, single starts are expected to fall 23.3 per cent next year, closer to the recent historical average. A slowdown in single-detached starts will also occur in Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and New Brunswick. Modest decreases in single-detached activity are forecast in British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec in 2009.

Multi-family housing increases in popularity

Moishe Alexander says As house prices have moved higher, less expensive multi-family housing (row, semi-detached, and apartment units) has increased in popularity relative to single-detached housing.  This year and next will see multi-family housing starts out number singledetached activity for the first time since 1982. Furthermore, 2008 marks the fifth consecutive year in which multiple starts have surpassed the 100,000 unit mark. Multi-family housing starts are forecast to rise 7.8 per cent to 117,925 units this year, while they are forecast to drop by 20.0 per cent to 94,375 units in 2009. Apartment construction has been growing for 11 consecutive years since bottoming out at just over 23,000 starts in 1996. The resurgence in apartment construction has been pushing multiple starts higher in recent years. Apartment starts are expected to grow 18.1 per cent to 84,725 units in 2008 before declining 21.4 per cent to 66,550 units in 2009.

MLS® sales will ease

Moishe Alexander says Existing home sales activity will ease 13.6 per cent to 452,225 units this year and an additional 4.2 per cent to 433,375 units in 2009 as rising house prices cool home ownership demand.  While sales have been easing throughout the first half of this year, new listings have continued to rise into record territory. Thus, the strong seller’s market that has existed since 2002 have given way to balanced market conditions in most regions across Canada.

Resale markets move back into balance

Moishe Alexander says The strong sellers’ market conditions in recent years were reflected in strong upward pressure on the average price of homes, which increased in the 9 to 11 per cent range in each of the last six years. The first half of this year has seen an easing in MLS® sales and record high levels of new listings; this has brought balance back to the Canadian resale market.  More balanced markets combined with decreased sales activity in the provinces of British Columbia and Alberta, where the provincial average prices are significantly higher than the Canadian average, will cause growth in the average MLS® price to slow in 2008 and 2009.
As more new listings enter the resale market, and sales begin to ease, future price growth will be well below the price increases seen over the previous 6 years. For 2008 and 2009, the MLS® annual average price will rise 0.3 per cent to $306,500 in 2008 and 0.1 per cent to $306,700 in 2009.

Trends Impacting Housing:

Mortgage Rates

Moishe Alexander says The Bank of Canada has cut the Target for the Overnight Rate by a total of 225 basis points since December 2007, bringing the rate down to 2.25 per cent.
Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half of 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.

Migration

Moishe Alexander says Net migration (immigration minus emigration) is forecast to increase by 9.2 per cent this year to just over 261,000 people, then remain essentially unchanged in 2009.  Historically high levels of migration will continue to support housing demand.  The majority of newly arrived immigrants initially settle in rental accommodations then move into home ownership over time. Net interprovincial migration to the West, coming at the expense of central Canada, will continue to boost housing demand in these provinces both this year and next.

Employment and Income

Moishe Alexander says Employment in Canada grew by nearly 194,000 people in the first three quarters of this year and was up 1.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.  Although there is uncertainty, employment growth is expected to be in the 1.4 per cent to 1.8 per cent range this year and in the 0.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent range in 2009. Tight labour market conditions will continue to drive wages and incomes higher.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/61500/61500_2008_Q04.pdf

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