“An increase in residential housing starts combined with rising MLS® sales is expected in New Brunswick in 2010 after seeing reduced activity in both the new home and resale market in most provincial urban centres last year,” said Claude Gautreau, CMHC’s senior market analyst for New Brunswick. Housing activity during the first quarter of 2010 has yielded positive results as economic fundamentals in the province remained strong, highlighted by historically high employment levels. These conditions are expected to persist over the forecast period.

In New Brunswick’s three large urban areas – Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton – residential starts are expected to outpace last year’s totals. However, the anticipated increase in housing starts in 2010 and 2011 will be moderate. The existing home market is expected to follow the same general trend with steady price growth in both 2010 and 2011, combined with a moderate increase in sales.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

New Brunswick Housing Starts

Housing starts are expected to end 2010 at 1,775 units, with 1,900 starts forecast for 2011. The resale or MLS®1 market will post 3,650 sales by the end of this year and reach the 3,600 level in 2011. The average MLS® house price is expected to end 2010 at $245,000 compared to $218,862 in 2009 and increase to $255,000 in 2011. “Despite the recent global economic uncertainty, strong fundamentals will continue to support demand for housing throughout the remainder of 2010 and in 2011,” said Chris Janes, senior market analyst with CMHC in Newfoundland and Labrador. “Overall, the positive outlook for the St. John’s area housing market will be reinforced by favourable trends in demographic and economic fundamentals, as well as on-going economic momentum fuelled by a lengthy list of major capital projects,” added Janes.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

“An increase in residential housing starts combined with rising MLS® sales is expected in New Brunswick in 2010 after seeing reduced activity in both the new home and resale market in most provincial urban centres last year,” said Claude Gautreau, CMHC’s senior market analyst for New Brunswick. Housing activity during the first quarter of 2010 has yielded positive results as economic fundamentals in the province remained strong, highlighted by historically high employment levels. These conditions are expected to persist over the forecast period.

In New Brunswick’s three large urban areas – Saint John, Moncton and Fredericton – residential starts are expected to outpace last year’s totals. However, the anticipated increase in housing starts in 2010 and 2011 will be moderate. The existing home market is expected to follow the same general trend with steady price growth in both 2010 and 2011, combined with a moderate increase in sales.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

Housing starts rebounded in the second half of 2009 and will strengthen in 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s first quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition*.

Following a total of 149,081 units in 2009, housing starts are expected to be in the range of 152,000 to 189,300 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 171,250 units. In 2011, housing starts will be in the range of 156,400 to 205,600 units, with a point forecast of 175,150 units.

“Canadian housing markets will benefit from improving economic conditions and low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. “As well, measures recently announced by the Government of Canada to support the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market will help moderate housing activity as some potential buyers will have to save a larger down payment or consider a less expensive home.”

Mr. Dugan also noted that the existing home market has shifted from a buyers’ market, at the beginning of 2009, to a sellers’ market. The relative lack of new listings for existing homes has pushed some of the demand into the new home market, which helps explain the forecast for higher housing starts activity in 2010.

The strong pace of MLS®1 sales seen in the second to fourth quarters of 2009 reflects, in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters. The pace is not likely to be sustained as pent-up demand is exhausted and financing costs increase with anticipated higher interest rates later in 2010. As a result, existing home sales will be in the range of 455,350 to 509,900 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 486,700 units, and then move slightly lower in 2011 to be in the range of 426,300 to 494,600 units, with a point forecast of 469,950 units.

With an improved balance between demand and supply, the average MLS® price is expected to remain close to the average in the last quarter of 2009, for most of 2010, and then rise modestly in 2011.

Posted by Moishe Alexander

“The gain in February housing starts was concentrated in the multiple starts segment, particularly in Toronto,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 9.0 per cent to 179,100 units in February. Urban multiple starts increased by 19.1 per cent to 89,900 units while single urban starts increased by 0.5 per cent to 89,200 units.

February’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 28.6 per cent in Ontario, by 14.3 per cent in Atlantic Canada, by 10.8 per cent in the Prairie region and by 8.0 per cent in British Columbia. In Quebec, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 14.1 per cent.

Economic conditions have substantially improved since the beginning of the year, as the financial crisis is largely over. Governments’ expansionary monetary and fiscal policies allowed for the massive injection of capital that stabilized the financial markets and revitalized the economies.

In Quebec, the economy is showing signs of an imminent recovery, and GDP is expected to grow in 2010. Employment, which tends to start growing again with some lag behind the economic cycle, should pick up slowly during 2010. The number of jobs should fall by 1.3 per cent this year, which should drive up the unemployment rate to 9.5 per cent in the Montréal CMA. After having increased rapidly since the beginning of the year, the unemployment rate has been rising more slowly in the last few months, as employment has stabilized to a certain extent. Even if the worst of the job losses is now over, the labour market will remain anemic, with a small gain in jobs (+0.4 per cent) next year, which will limit income growth and housing demand. In 2010, the unemployment rate should reach 9.6 per cent.

During the period from September 2008 to September 2009, employment in the Montréal CMA declined by 1.1 per cent from the previous twelve months, as around 21,300 jobs were eliminated. The losses were concentrated in full-time jobs
( 1.3 per cent), as part-time jobs rose slightly (+0.1 per cent). As well, the job cuts particularly affected young people aged from 15 to 24 years ( 3.5 per cent) and also people aged from 25 to 44 years ( 1.3 per cent).
The financial sector has been the hardest hit by the job losses for the past year. In the midst of the crisis that shook the financial markets, the companies in this sector cut their workforces by more than 10 per cent in one year. In all, about 15,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector. The improvement of the situation on the financial markets now seems to have stemmed the hemorrhage of jobs in this sector.
A more significant sector in terms of number of jobs, trade–and more particularly retail trade–also registered considerable job losses in the last twelve months ( 7 per cent). In fact, more than 16,000 jobs were eliminated in this sector, but the situation should stabilize over the coming quarters, as economic conditions improve.

After having declined for four consecutive years, employment in the manufacturing sector seems to have stabilized in recent quarters but, with the strong Canadian dollar, the recovery in this sector remains uncertain. The slowdown of the Montréal housing market at the beginning of 2009 sharply affected employment in the construction sector, which had posted two years of solid growth. The massive investments in infrastructure will support employment in this sector in the Montréal area in 2010.

Despite a slight slowdown, activity will remain solid on the Trois-Rivières census metropolitan area (CMA) residential real estate market in 2009 and 2010. In fact, transaction volumes will stay high on the resale market, as will housing starts, which will remain above the average levels for the last few years. The rental market, for its part, will continue to post a relatively low vacancy rate. Even though the job market will be sluggish, financing conditions, which will still be very favourable, combined with strong migration, will energize the market. Job market to stay sluggish
The economy in Trois-Rivières, like in several other areas around the province, was affected by the global economic crisis that has been prevailing for over a year now. Already, the regional economy had suffered from the surging loonie, which had severely tested manufacturing companies by undermining their competitiveness on the market. The ensuing decline in demand, as a direct result of the economic slowdown, only made things worse. Consequently, job losses have now been accumulating for four quarters in the Trois-Rivières CMA (with almost all the losses having been full-time positions), in pace with the announcements of layoffs and plant closings, which have increased. On the other hand, the area will benefit from the vitality of other sectors of the regional economy, including the non-residential

“Housing starts are trending higher, reflecting improvements in both the single and multiple segments,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “The improvement in housing starts is consistent with our expectation of a stronger second half for 2009.”

The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 14.0 per cent to 131,800 units in August. Urban multiple starts increased by 23.8 per cent to 77,600 units, while urban single starts moved up 2.5 per cent to 54,200 units in August.

August’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased by 56.0 per cent in British Columbia, by 16.1 per cent in the Prairies, by 13.8 per cent in Ontario, by 9.6 per cent in Atlantic Canada, and by 2.5 per cent in Quebec.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,600 units in August.

As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 60 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable homes. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making vital decisions.

For more information, call 1-800-668-2642.

All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels.

CMHC estimates the level of rural starts for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in rural areas and revises the estimate.

The Canadian housing market appears to be picking up steam, as prices climbed an average of 4.2% across Canada in June, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). However, some areas are struggling. Click the arrows to find out which markets have been left behind as prices rise.

Having decided Canada would not face the same scenario in the real estate market as the United States there was still speculation late last year about supposed free-falling property prices, fuelled by market trends in British Columbia and Alberta where rapid price increases and speculation had been prevalent. Based on current statistics there is now an emerging body of evidence that the Southern Central Ontario real estate marketplace is seeing what is best described as a “market adjustment” resulting in a soft landing and not the crash that much of the media projected.

In our local area, residential resale activity for June is up on the same month last year. In Oakville, by 18% and the ever
expanding Milton by 34%. Current data would suggest little movement up or down in average sales prices with Oakville
down 1% and Milton up 2% on last June.

The median sale price. which is the midpoint of all sales, in Oakville for the first six months of this year is $418,000 down
just 2% from the same period last year and in Milton at $325,000 is down only 1%. With the number of new listings also down, year to date and June statistics showing signs of pent up demand resulting in higher sales we could be moving back to a sellers market. Many of the economical problems facing home buyers today have been offset by lower mortgage rates and a stable market place.

There are signs that we may be recovering from the first recession since 1992. Buyers, Sellers and REALTORS® will certainly find this scenario much less stressful.Taking the stress out of buying and selling is our day to dayactivity.

If you are considering either buying or selling now could be one of the best times to be reviewing your options while the market is stable. Preparation is a key part of the process.

http://valeriepeebles.com/better-signs-in-the-market/

reviewed by Moishe Alexander, CFC canadian funding corp CEO