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Moishe Alexander’s review of the Kingston Housing Market and CMHC Outlook Report Fall 2008

February 24, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Kingston Housing Market

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Single-Detached Starts Remain Resilient in 2008

Moishe Alexander says Single-detached starts should remain relatively flat over the next two years as gains in Kingston City are expected to offset weaknesses in South Frontenac Township. Therefore, construction for this type of dwelling is forecast to reach 570 units in 2008, close to the 600 units recorded in 2007. Year-to-date single starts have exceeded last year’s levels. But in the months ahead, construction activity will moderate amid growing concerns about the economic and job market conditions in Canada.

Next year, however, single-detached starts will ease further by nine per cent to 520 units, as builders react to rising new home inventories and sustained competition from the existing homes market. The recent surge in new listings provides more choice in the market-place and will snare many first-time home buyers away from the new homes market.  Nevertheless, the high end and custom design single-detached homes will maintain market shares as some baby boomers look to build their dream homes. This will help sustain single starts in the coming years.

New Semi-Detached and Row Units Gaining Ground

Moishe Alexander says While single-detached homes are most popular among home buyers in Kingston, many first-time buyers will more likely have to settle for semidetached, since the average prices of new single-detached homes across Kingston appear beyond the reach of less affluent households. As a result, semi-detached starts are predicted to reach 40 units this year over the 16 units posted in 2007. In 2009, however, starts for this type of dwellings are anticipated to decline slightly as the economy slowly recovers.

Meanwhile, row starts will retreat to 25 units in 2008 before climbing to 60 units in 2009. In general, slow economic and job market activity will translate into a shift in consumer demand away from single detached homes to less expensive townhomes and semis.

Expect Low Apartment Starts to Pull Down Total Starts

Moishe Alexander says New apartment starts are expected to fall this year and next. Construction has been inactive year-to-date as the market continues to absorb the high influx of new rental units that were started over the past two years. In addition, weak youth employment growth, low international migration combined with high vacancy rate point toward a decrease in new apartment starts in the next two years.

Although gradual and in line with demographic changes, the decline in apartment starts will prompt total housing starts to moderate from 880 units in 2007 to 635 in 2008 and further to 610 in 2009. In addition, negative net migration in the Kingston CMA is predicted as high youth unemployment encourages many young adults to leave the Kingston area for the bigger cities.  According to its recent publication, Statistics Canada reported that 9.1 per cent and 8.6 per cent of Kingstonians left the Kingston CMA for Montreal and Edmonton respectively – between 2001 and 2006.

Resale Market

Resale Transactions to Mirror Record Set in 2006

Moishe Alexander says Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS) are forecast to ease by 3.9 per cent this year compared to last year’s record level, and then ease an additional 0.8 per cent in 2009.

Despite the moderation in MLS sales, our resale forecast for the next two years suggest more activity than the level recorded in 2006 – which was considered a strong year for existing home market activity. In addition to healthy full-time employment growth, the strong real income gains – as measured by the average weekly earnings – will help sustain the resale market.

More Balanced Market Conditions Will Slow Price Growth

Moishe Alexander says There has been strong price growth in the resale market in recent years, especially during the 2003 to 2005 period when the market saw a double digit increase. With moderating sales activity coupled with an increasing supply of new listings, price increases will not be as brisk in 2009. However, average MLS price increase will remain strong at 4.6 per cent in 2008 before dropping to 1.9 per cent in 2009.

As a leading predictor of future average MLS price increases, the current sales-to-new listings ratio is pointing toward a more balanced market condition in the entire Kingston CMA. Since 2000 the salesto-new listings ratio has been held firmly in the sellers’ territory. However, toward the end of 2008 we anticipate new listings to reach a record high of 6985 units, pulling down the sales-to-new listings ratio to 0.51 from 0.56 in 2007.

A drop in the ratio generally means a slow average MLS price increase ahead – which is in conformity with our forecast for 2008 and 2009.

The Economy

Employment Growth Is Brighter in 2009

Moishe Alexander says Employment growth in Kingston is forecast to slow to 0.6 per cent in 2008, as further manufacturing and accommodation job losses are combined with declining retail trade sector activity. However, the em-ployment outlook is slightly brighter in 2009 for two main reasons. First, both the health care and public administration sectors will boost overall labour market activity and, second, the manufacturing sector will finally begin a gradual recovery due to strengthening U.S. dollar visà-vis the Canadian dollar. The number of people employed in 2009 is expected to increase by 0.9 per cent.

A diversified economy and the expected decline in the Canadian dollar will help protect Kingston from a deep economic slowdown.  Continued economic growth will translate into job gains for Kingstonians and relatively low unemployment rate. Due to the aging population, a shortage of skilled labour in key industries will put upward pressure on wages. The resulting wage gains coupled with declining mortgage rates should have a positive impact on the demand for both existing and new homes.

Construction Sector Growth Solid

Moishe Alexander says Construction sector employment is expected to finish 2008 with positive job gains of 13 per cent. However, growth will be held back in 2009 almost entirely from the residential sector, as the housing market cools off.

Moreover, non-residential investment remains strong due in part to several ongoing projects. For instance, the phase 1 of the $230 million Queen’s Centre construction is still underway and is scheduled for completion in September of 2009.  Notwithstanding the gains from nonresidential activity, the construction sector suffered a setback as a result of the decision to postpone the opening of the Ethanol plant in Kingston later this year. The West Kingston Ethanol plant is not anticipated to open but until the spring of 2010.

Mortgage Rates

Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64335/64335_2008_B02.pdf

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Moishe Alexander’s review of the Peterborough Housing Market and CMHC Outlook Report Fall 2008

February 24, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Peterborough Housing Market

Moishe Alexander’s Review

New Home Market

Slowdown of New Housing Market

Peterborough - Credit Bobolink, Flickr Creative Commons

Moishe Alexander says Activity in the new housing market in Peterborough will moderate over the remainder of 2008 and in 2009. This pullback will be due to past price gains, an abundant selection of homes for sale in the resale market, and to some extent the economic slowdown. Though Peterborough’s economy is not as export-dependent as other regions, it will be somewhat affected by the strong Canadian dollar and trends in the U.S. economy. Starts will total 430 units by the end of 2008 and 410 units in 2009. Single-detached homes will continue being the pillar of home construction, with dominant shares of 74 percent and 76 percent over 2008 and 2009 respectively. Meanwhile, rowhouses will account for 14 per cent of total starts and will register total of 65 units and 56 units in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Apartment construction will remain stable at 40 units for both 2008 and 2009.  While the Peterborough Metropolitan Area (CMA) covers the regions of Peterborough City, Otonabee-South Monaghan Township, Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan Township, Douro-Dummer Township and Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield Township, Peterborough City accounts more than two thirds of new construction in the area.

Moishe Alexander says The average price of single-detached homes increased rapidly in the past several years, pulled up by the construction of more high value homes. In 2009, the average price of a newly absorbed single-detached home is expected to rise to $362,000, 2 per cent up from an estimated $355,000 in 2008.

Resale Market

Resale Market Cooling Off

Moishe Alexander says Sales of existing housing are expected to moderate by 5 per cent in 2008, to 2,750 units and by another 7 per cent in 2009. Demand will soften as employment growth slows.
Sales will decrease because fewer renters will make the move to ownership. The average price has increased quite strongly over the last few years. At the same time, part-time employment has increased faster than full-time job creation.

Moishe Alexander says This has made the decision to rent more attractive than home ownership for some households. With fewer renters becoming owners, the vacancy rate will decrease and rental costs will inch higher over the next two years.

Moishe Alexander says The strong increase in prices has drawn more sellers to the market.  As a result, new listings will reach 5,300 units in 2008 from 5,085 in 2007, before declining to 5,200 units in 2009. The decrease in sales of existing homes and the increase in the listings will push the sales to new listings ratio downward, indicating balance between demand and supply in this market.

Moishe Alexander says Overall, despite the slowdown in activity, the housing market in this region is still healthy, in part, because housing prices in Peterborough continue to be much lower than in surrounding markets. The price differential continues to attract people to the region.

Economic Trends

Healthy Local Economic Conditions

Moishe Alexander says The majority of the population growth in Peterborough is occurring in two age groups: 20-24 and 45-64.  In years to come growth in these significant age cohorts will continue to bolster housing demand as these two groups are associated with firsttime or repeat home buying.
Moishe Alexander says The Peterborough region is expected to benefit from several projects financed by the public and private sectors. The projects will have a positive impact on job growth, especially in the construction and service sectors. As the biggest employer in the region with more than 2000 employees, the health centre, which moved to a new facility in June 2008, is expected to increase its number of workers over the next two years. Furthermore, Peterborough will benefit from the financial contribution from three levels of the government to help with different projects for infrastructure needs and businesses growth, including projects such as the proposed rail transportation link from Peterborough to Toronto.  Nearly 80 per cent of employment in Peterborough is in the services sector. The services sector will continue to expand, taking advantage of the high investment in support of the aging population and the increased hiring of mature part-time employees. Yet, this strength in the services industry will not completely offset changes in full-time employment in the goods-producing sectors.  Therefore, employment is expected to grow modestly by 0.3 per cent to 56,800 and by 0.5 per cent to 57,100 in 2008 and 2009 respectively.

Mortgage Rates

Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/65716/65716_2008_B02.pdf

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Moishe Alexander’s review of the Ottawa Housing Market and CMHC Outlook Report Fall 2008

February 23, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Ottawa Housing Market

Moishe Alexander’s Review:

New Home Market

New Construction Set to Slow by 5.5 Per Cent

Ottawa - Credit Abdullahh, Flickr Creative Commons

Moishe Alexander says the new home market is well set to finish the year up by 5.3 per cent from 2007, with a total of 6,850 new starts. This healthy number of starts constitutes the third highest annual record in the past 20 years. Even as the fourth quarter activity slows down, 2008 will end on a strong note. As Ottawa’s economy reacts to the current slowdown, it will prove difficult to maintain such record levels of new construction. Much like in the resale market, the new housing market faced recently a turning point toward slower growth and 6,000 new properties are expected to be built in 2009, down 12 per cent from 2008. The demographic trends in the next ten years are pointing towards slower housing demand numbers, which will run at an average of 5,300 new starts per year. New construction in the last years has been running above household formation as a result of replenishment of the existing stock.

Single-Detached Dwellings Trending Lower

Moishe Alexander says while still strong, the single-detached segment went from representing almost 64 per cent of total starts in 1999 to accounting for just over 45 per cent in 2007. Converging to a projected long term starts shares trend of 40 per cent for single-detached and 60 per cent for other type of dwellings, they are expected to close 2008 with 2,920 new properties built, down only 1.8 per cent from last year. Single-detached starts will likely finish 2009 on a weaker note with 2,350 new units. The growth in price for a new single family home in 2009 will slow to reach $417,500 or a 1.2 per cent increase.

Construction Flourishing in the Outskirts

Moishe Alexander says the top three urban neighborhoods where new construction has year-to date been particularly active are Nepean, Cumberland, and Kanata, where town home construction represented over 40 per cent of the total of new units and single-detached starts covered another 40 per cent.  Of the total new single-detached dwellings built in the Ottawa CMA over 85 per cent broke ground outside the Greenbelt area.

As the Queen City’s housing market grows, new construction of single family homes and town homes will flourish largely in newer areas outside of the Greenbelt. The rapidly increasing numbers of settled immigrants prefer the more affordable dwellings located in the outskirts of the City, even if that means longer commuting times.

New town home construction will add 2,200 new properties to the new home market, the third highest level in 30 years. there will be a decline in new town home construction in 2009 to 2,050 units. Nonetheless, this type of dwelling will lead the growth in new construction in our Nation’s Capital City.

High-Density Construction Will Be Favoured

Moishe Alexander says both economic and demographic trends have been supporting the growing popularity of apartments in Ottawa. On the one hand, the higher price of land at the City’s Core will sustain greater intensification apartment building projects. On the other hand, the expanding pool of young professionals and retiring baby-boomers favours the convenience offered by owning or renting a condominium apartment. Responding to these factors, this year will close with higher levels of condominium construction located at or close to the Downtown Core.

The outlook for new construction of apartments looks very promising. By the end of 2008, new apartment starts will reach the second highest level since 1992 with 1,500 new units built. Looking forward into 2009, new apartment construction will close with 1,400 new dwellings.

Rental Market

Slowdown in Vacancy Rate in 2009

Moishe Alexander says although there is a high demand for Rental Apartment units not only by young adults and financially weaker households, but also by newly arrived immigrants, new rental construction has accounted for less than 3 per cent of the total construction in the last five years.
As Ottawa receives on average around 6,000 new immigrants every year, strong demand for more rental units combined with a slowdown in inventory build-up will lead to a tighter Rental Market. It should be noted that condominium apartments do represent a source of rental supply as investors lease up their units. CMHC’s condo rental survey revealed almost 20 per cent of the almost 20,000 condominium apartment’s universe was rented out in 2007. In addition, the Secondary Rental Market survey conducted last year revealed a significant 4 per cent of the total population of Ottawa renting a dwelling as a secondary household.

Nevertheless, in the next years Ottawa’s Rental Market will be facing additional demand. Home price gains will deter first time home buyers from jumping into the homeownership market, pushing the vacancy rate further down to 1.9 per cent in 2008 and to 1.6 per cent for 2009. Even if there was a higher amount of new rental construction in the near future, it would take it a couple of years to enter the Rental Market.

The average rent for a two bedroom apartment will sit at $980 per month in 2008, up 2 per cent from last year, and will finally reach the $1,000 mark in 2009. Nonetheless, rental affordability has remained healthy and improving since 2006, supporting future rental demand.

Resale Market

Resale Market Trending Towards Balance

Moishe Alexander says after a slow first quarter, impressive resale activity this year in the Ottawa CMA offers further evidence of the local economy’s remarkable resilience to the wider economic uncertainty.  Recent activity is nonetheless leading Ottawa’s housing market towards slower, calmer waters in what constitutes a clear shift from recent growth trends to more sustainable levels.
The total number of resale transactions will retreat by 5 per cent in 2008 to finish with 14,000 transactions.  Such performance is still healthy by historical standards representing the second highest number of sales on record and exceeding by 4.8 per cent the average annual sales levels achieved since the turn of the century.

As Ottawa’s resale market adjusts to the current economic slowdown, the number of transactions in 2009 is anticipated to step back yet again but by a milder 4 per cent to a total of 13,400, thus gradually stabilizing sales activity along a more sustainable long term trend.
Market Trending Towards Balanced Territory

Moishe Alexander says the supply side of the Resale Market, new Listings, rebounded strongly during the second quarter of 2008 and is expected to close the year at a 4 per cent year-over-year increase.  Although a robust increase, resale volume will increase at a healthier pace this year; therefore, sustaining the existing home market in sellers’ territory.

Looking forward into 2009, it is anticipated that the Capital City’s resale market will trend towards a Balanced Territory. With the slight softening of demand and new listings remaining at a healthy level, the Sales to New Listings ratio will fall below the 55 per cent mark. Consequently, resale market conditions will support price increases at approximately the inflation rate.

Average Price Growth Rising Moderately

Moishe Alexander says consistent with a slower progression of average home prices, the average MLS price for residential properties in Ottawa will close 2008 at $288,500, or 5.7 per cent higher than last year. While the Capital City’s housing market adjusts further to the slowing economy, the average resale price will grow by a more moderate 3.6 per cent, reaching almost the $300,000 mark.

The Downtown Core Along with the Outskirts Remain Popular

Moishe Alexander says amid the uncertain prospects of a slower economy, the Core remains strong, complemented by healthy and fast-developing neighborhoods in the Queen City’s outskirts. This trend will continue as the rapidly retiring baby-boomers and young professional’s preferences are better by the convenience of living within closer proximity to the Core.  Accordingly, the price for existing homes in the Downtown Core will increase by over 9 per cent in 2008.  Notwithstanding the widespread year-to-date price gains observed, the increasingly popular neighborhoods of Orleans and Barrhaven have stood out in 2008.  These regions achieved a better position not only by appreciating faster than the average price wise but also in sales as well. Looking into next year’s trends, Ottawa’s outskirts will remain strong as these areas are newer and less expensive than the average in the Capital of Canada.

Economic Overview

Strong Public Sector Sustaining Ottawa’s Economy

Moishe Alexander says Ottawa’s employment growth is expected to finish 2008 on a strong note, increasing by 2.3 per cent over 2007, with an average of 498 thousand people employed. The Capital City’s economy will see a more modest pace of growth in labour market performance of 0.8 per cent, reaching an average of just over 500 thousand people employed in 2009.  While the Canadian economy decelerates, the Queen City has defied both national and provincial trends.  This is mostly due to a large and expanding Public Administration sector, which has more than compensated for the losses in the Manufacturing, Construction and Transportation sectors.

The Service sector, which constitutes almost 50 per cent of total employment, will grow by 4 per cent in 2008. Next year it is anticipated that the rate of growth of this sector will moderate for the whole province, as well as for Ottawa, as a result of a moderation in consumer spending.

Average Weekly Earnings Supporting Housing Demand

Moishe Alexander says the labour force growth in Ottawa is expected to slow down from a fast rate of 2.1 per cent in 2008 to a more sustainable 1 per cent growth in 2009. As the effects of the decelerating economy start to be felt next year, employment opportunities will grow at a slower rate than that of people looking for a job. Consequently, unemployment rate will stay tight increasing marginally to 5.1 per cent in 2009. Average weekly earnings will close this year 5 per cent higher than in 2007, while 2009 will see a more conventional, yet still remarkable, 3 per cent growth in average labour income. This high level of earnings is the backbone of healthy economic activity that is supporting our City’s housing market.

Migration Increasing into Ottawa-Gatineau

Moishe Alexander says with a population of almost 900,000 individuals in Ottawa and more than quarter million in Gatineau, the region posted an increase in migration last year with over 8,500 more individuals.  As Canada’s High Tech Capital, Ottawa’s workforce enjoys one of the highest incomes in Canada. This factor, along with its healthy level of employment, will help support increased migration into 2009.

Mortgage Rates

Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64311/64311_2008_B02.pdf