Housing starts rebounded in the second half of 2009 and will strengthen in 2010, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s first quarter Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition*.

Following a total of 149,081 units in 2009, housing starts are expected to be in the range of 152,000 to 189,300 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 171,250 units. In 2011, housing starts will be in the range of 156,400 to 205,600 units, with a point forecast of 175,150 units.

“Canadian housing markets will benefit from improving economic conditions and low mortgage rates,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist for CMHC. “As well, measures recently announced by the Government of Canada to support the long-term stability of Canada’s housing market will help moderate housing activity as some potential buyers will have to save a larger down payment or consider a less expensive home.”

Mr. Dugan also noted that the existing home market has shifted from a buyers’ market, at the beginning of 2009, to a sellers’ market. The relative lack of new listings for existing homes has pushed some of the demand into the new home market, which helps explain the forecast for higher housing starts activity in 2010.

The strong pace of MLS®1 sales seen in the second to fourth quarters of 2009 reflects, in part, activity that was delayed in the previous two quarters. The pace is not likely to be sustained as pent-up demand is exhausted and financing costs increase with anticipated higher interest rates later in 2010. As a result, existing home sales will be in the range of 455,350 to 509,900 units in 2010, with a point forecast of 486,700 units, and then move slightly lower in 2011 to be in the range of 426,300 to 494,600 units, with a point forecast of 469,950 units.

With an improved balance between demand and supply, the average MLS® price is expected to remain close to the average in the last quarter of 2009, for most of 2010, and then rise modestly in 2011.

Two hundred and seventy-three high-end homes changed hands in May 2009, up six per cent from 258 reported during the same period one year earlier, and the highest number of sales over $1 million in a one-month period in the history of the Toronto Real Estate Board. The previous record was set in May of 2007 at 266 sales.

“Confidence is slowly returning to the marketplace,” says Michael Polzler, Executive Vice President, Regional Director, RE/MAX Ontario-Atlantic Canada. “Traditional market indicators are in place – the stock market has made tremendous gains in recent months, crude values have risen significantly, and the Canadian dollar has gained almost 10 points in the past month. Combine these influences with pent-up demand and growing economic stability and you have the ingredients for solid sales in the top-end of the market.”

Further evidence of a rebound is the recent sale of a Bridle Path home priced at over $13 million, the first sale over the $10 million price point in more than a year. The 18,000 sq. ft. gated estate, situated on more than two acres, was listed by Barry Cohen, Broker, RE/MAX Realtron, and featured a spectacular backyard with a negative edge waterfall pool, fountains, hot tub, and tennis court.

Demand for homes priced in excess of $1 million has increased steadily since the beginning of the year, says Polzler, mimicking the overall real estate market. Seven hundred homes have changed hands year-to-date, compared to 944 in January to May of 2008. Given current momentum, however, it’s likely that activity will continue at a healthy pace for the remainder of the year – with sales at year-end at least on par or ahead of 2008 levels.

RE/MAX is Canada’s leading real estate organization with over 17,600 sales associates situated throughout its more than 677 independently-owned and operated offices across the country. The RE/MAX franchise network, now in its 36th year, is a global real estate system operating in more than 70 countries. Over 6,700 independently-owned offices engage nearly 100,000 member sales associates who lead the industry in professional designations, experience and production while providing real estate services in residential, commercial, referral, and asset management.

http://eleganthomesinwesttoronto.blogspot.com/2009/06/luxury-homes-sales-rebound.html

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says the rental apartment vacancy rate went up again in the Sherbrooke census metropolitan area (CMA). After climbing by 1.2 percentage points in 2007 to 2.4 per cent, the vacancy rate continued to increase in 2008, reaching 2.8 per cent. The rental market has been easing for five years. The estimated change in the average apartment rent was 2.1 per cent between the October 2007 and October 2008 surveys in the Sherbrooke CMA.

Higher vacancy rate in 2008

Moishe Alexander says According to the results of the latest CMHC Rental Market Survey conducted in 2008, the rental apartment vacancy rate1 went up again in the Sherbrooke census metropolitan area (CMA). After climbing by 1.2 percentage points in 2007 to 2.4 per cent, the vacancy rate continued to increase in 2008, reaching 2.8 per cent. As shown in Figure 2, the rental market has in fact been easing for five years.

In the other CMAs across the province, the vacancy rate increased only in the Trois-Rivières area (from 1.5 per cent in 2007 to 1.7 per cent in 2008). The vacancy rates fell in the Montréal CMA, the Gatineau area and the Saguenay CMA, to 2.4 per cent, 1.9 per cent and 1.6 per cent, respectively, for decreases of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.2 percentage points. It was in the Québec area, however, that the market was the tightest, with fewer than 1 per cent of the apartments vacant there.

Supply remains stable but demand moderates

Moishe Alexander says The vacancy rate increase in the Sherbrooke CMA in 2008 resulted from a moderating demand and stable supply. The number of units in the rental housing stock dropped by 6 per cent in the CMA (from 32,891 units in 2007 to 30,842 units in 2008), but this decrease was mainly caused by the withdrawal of retirement home apartments from our 2008 survey universe. Given this change, supply effectively remained fairly stable between 2007 and 2008 (-1 per cent). At first glance, the stability of the rental housing universe may seem surprising. In fact, between our October 2007 and October 2008 surveys, just over 300 traditional rental apartments were completed, which should normally have increased supply on the market. However, as mentioned earlier, the rental housing stock decreased by 300 units.

This does not necessarily mean that there were fewer rental units on the market this year than last year. It is possible that a number of buildings had to be temporarily withdrawn from the survey universe, as they contained fewer than three rental units. This can occur when one of the apartments in a three-unit building is occupied by the owner.  On the demand side, migrants who come to an area, whether from other areas of Quebec or elsewhere, are definitely one of the main factors. In fact, most newcomers to an area choose to rent when they arrive.

Preliminary data2 show that fewer immigrants planned to settle in the Estrie area in 2008. At the end of the first half of 2008, the data showed a decrease of 7 per cent compared to the same period in 2007 (about 40 fewer people). Should the data turn out to be accurate, the decline in immigration in 2008 could therefore be partly responsible for the increase in the vacancy rate this year.  In addition, still attracted by the abundance of job opportunities out West, people from Sherbrooke may have continued to move there, lowering net migration in the CMA and weakening potential demand for rental units.
Another factor that may have contributed to the rise in the vacancy rate is the fact that the labour market has been less favourable to young people since the end of 2007, which may have caused some of them to delay leaving the family home, further moderating demand for rental apartments.

Impact of homeownership

Moishe Alexander says As we have already mentioned, the proportion of vacant rental units has been increasing for a few years now in the Sherbrooke CMA. In recent years, sales of existing and new homes have remained strong, suggesting that many renter households made the transition to homeownership, which therefore pushed up the vacancy rate.

In fact, young households now account for a slightly smaller share of rental market clients, as indicated by the 2001 and 2006 census data. It is likely that a greater number of young households are now moving straight to homeownership and bypassing the rental market, also contributing to driving up the vacancy rate. While there are no data to confirm or refute this hypothesis, many younger people may have been attracted to buying homes, such as condominiums, which are more affordable. In fact, sales of new and existing condominiums increased significantly in 2007 and 2008 in the Sherbrooke CMA. It should also be mentioned that financing conditions are still favourable to home buying, such that young households can consider becoming homeowners.

Market easing for larger units

Moishe Alexander says As was the case last year, bachelor units posted the least tight conditions on the rental market, with a vacancy rate of 4.9 per cent in 2008. As well, the market eased for apartments with three or more bedrooms, with the vacancy rate increasing by 1.4 percentage points between the last two October surveys (1.4 per cent in 2007, versus 2.8 per cent in 2008). The decrease in the number of immigrant families, often larger than families who are native to the area3, may have contributed to the increase in the percentage of unoccupied units in this category. The vacancy rate for two-bedroom apartments also rose, but to a lesser extent.

Vacancy rates up in almost all sectors of the CMA

Moishe Alexander says The vacancy rates in the west and central districts of the city of Sherbrooke increased in 2008. Having now surpassed 3 per cent in both districts. Among all the zones in the CMA, the west district posted the largest year-over-year vacancy rate increase (+1.7 percentage points). Students from the Université de Sherbrooke usually fuelled demand for rental units in that sector. While this policy had no impact last year, free public transit for students may have encouraged some to look further away from campus for an apartment that would better meet their needs. While the vacancy rate rose for all unit types combined, rental market conditions in the west district particularly eased for bachelor apartments, which are usually popular with students. In fact, the proportion of vacant units in this category jumped from 1.8 per cent to 7.9 per cent. In the former city of Sherbrooke, the east district recorded the smallest percentage of unoccupied units (1.9 per cent). In fact, it was in this district that the withdrawal of retirement home apartments from our survey universe this year had the greatest impact. In effect, by including retirement homes, the 2007 vacancy rate was much higher there. It should be recalled that our latest retirement home market survey report showed that many rental units were vacant in the east district.

The vacancy rates also increased

Moishe Alexander says year-over-year in the former suburbs of Rock Forest (from 1.2    per cent to 1.4 percent), Fleurimont (from 1.4 per cent to 2.1    per cent) and Ascot–Lennoxville (from 3.8 per cent to 5.1 per cent).  However, rental units in these sectors account for less than 25 per cent of the total rental housing stock in the CMA. Contrary to the other sectors of the CMA, the Magog area saw its vacancy rate drop to 2.9 per cent in 2008 (from 3.3 per cent in 2007). With the regional manufacturing sector experiencing difficulties, some renter families likely decided to postpone the purchase of a home. In fact, market conditions got tighter for units with three or more bedrooms, as their vacancy rate fell by 1.9 percentage points (from 4.8 per cent in 2007 to 2.9 per cent in 2008). With sales of existing singlefamily houses having fallen significantly in the area in 2008, larger apartments may have become the best compromise for renter families in the current economic environment. It is also possible that workers seeking better job prospects left the area, further moderating the rental housing demand.

Rents in 2008

Moishe Alexander says The estimated change in the average apartment rent was 2.1 per cent between the October 2007 and October 2008 surveys in the Sherbrooke CMA. Apart from onebedroom units, for which the average rent rose by 4.2 per cent, the other unit types recorded increases of around 2 per cent.  The average rent for two-bedroom apartments reached $543 while, for apartments with three or more bedrooms, the average attained $658. The average rents for bachelor apartments and one-bedroom units, for their part, rose to $368 and $437, respectively.

Older buildings bear the brunt of the easing rental market

Moishe Alexander says In the CMA, there were greater proportions of vacant units in rental structures built before 1990 (see Table 1.2.1). Buildings completed from 1960 to 1974 posted the highest vacancy rate (3.6 per cent).  Conversely, very few apartments were vacant in structures built from 1990 to 1999, which had a vacancy rate slightly above zero (0.4 per cent).

The trend observed in the last few years for smaller structures (with three to five units) continued, as they still posted the lowest vacancy rate (1.7 per cent). This result contrasted with that of residential buildings with 20 to 99 units, for which the vacancy rate was slightly below 4 per cent.

Rental affordability falls slightly

Moishe Alexander says CMHC’s rental affordability indicator4 is a gauge of how affordable a rental market is for those households which rent within that market. In 2008, the affordability indicator4 was 128, compared to 133 in 2007. While rental affordability has decreased, Sherbrooke area households continued to spend less than 30 per cent of their gross income on rent, as they have for the last ten years. In 1998, the indicator had dropped below 100, reaching 93.

In addition, a review of the data for two-bedroom apartments, which do account for over half of the rental housing stock in the CMA, reveals that affordable units remained the (from 3.3 per cent in 2007). With the regional manufacturing sector experiencing difficulties, some renter families likely decided to postpone the purchase of a home. In fact, market conditions got tighter for units with three or more bedrooms, as their vacancy rate fell by 1.9 percentage points (from 4.8 per cent in 2007 to 2.9 per cent in 2008). With sales of existing singlefamily houses having fallen significantly in the area in 2008, larger apartments may have become the best compromise for renter families in the current economic environment. It is also possible that workers seeking better job prospects left the area, further moderating the rental housing demand.

Rents in 2008

Moishe Alexander says The estimated change in the average apartment rent was 2.1 per cent between the October 2007 and October 2008 surveys in the Sherbrooke CMA. Apart from one bedroom units, for which the average rent rose by 4.2 per cent, the other unit types recorded increases of around 2 per cent.  The average rent for two-bedroom apartments reached $543 while, for apartments with three or more bedrooms, the average attained $658.  The average rents for bachelor apartments and one-bedroom units, for their part, rose to $368 and $437, respectively.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64447/64447_2008_A01.pdf

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says the average vacancy rate in Regina’s rental apartments was 0.5 per cent in October 2008, down from the 1.7 per cent in October 2007. Regina tied with Vancouver and Victoria for the second lowest vacancy rate in Canada. Average rent for all types of suites increased $87 monthly between surveys. One-bedroom suites increased $80 monthly and two-bedroom suites went up $95 monthly. Three-bedroom plus apartments increased $116 monthly. The average vacancy rate for Regina will increase to 1.2 per cent in 2009 as in-migration slows because of a slower increase in employment and rising rents.

NATIONAL VACANCY RATE DECREASED IN OCTOBER 2008

Moishe Alexander says The average rental apartment vacancy rate in Canada’s 34 major centres decreased to 2.2 per cent in October 2008 from 2.6 per cent in October 2007. The centres with the highest vacancy rates in 2008 were Windsor (14.6 per cent), St.  Catharines-Niagara (4.3 per cent), and Oshawa (4.2 per cent). On the other hand, the major urban centres with the lowest vacancy rates were Kelowna (0.3 per cent), Victoria (0.5 per cent), Vancouver (0.5 per cent), and Regina (0.5 per cent). Demand for rental housing in Canada increased due to high migration levels, youth employment growth, and the large gap between the cost of homeownership and renting. Rental construction and competition from the condominium market were not enough to offset growing rental demand. The highest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Calgary ($1,148), Vancouver ($1,123), Toronto ($1,095), and Edmonton ($1,034), followed by Ottawa ($995), Kelowna ($967), and Victoria ($965). The lowest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Trois-Rivières ($505), Saguenay ($518), and Sherbrooke ($543). Year-over-year comparison of rents in new and existing structures can be slightly misleading because rents in newly-built structures tend to be higher than in existing buildings. However, by excluding new structures, we can get a better indication of actual rent increases paid by most tenants. The average rent for two bedroom apartments in existing structures increased in all major centres. The largest rent increases in existing structures were recorded in Saskatoon (20.3 per cent), Regina (13.5 per cent), Edmonton (9.2 per cent), and Kelowna (8.4 per cent).  Overall, the average rent for twobedroom apartments in existing structures across Canada’s 34 major centres increased by 2.9 per cent between October 2007 and October 2008.
CMHC’s October 2008 Rental

Moishe Alexander says Market Survey also covers condominium apartments offered for rent in Calgary, Edmonton, Montréal, Ottawa, Québec, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria. In 2008, vacancy rates for rental condominium apartments were below one per cent in four of the 10 centres surveyed. Rental condominium vacancy rates were the lowest in Regina, Toronto, Ottawa, and Vancouver. However, Calgary and Edmonton registered the highest vacancy rates for condominium apartments at 4.0 per cent and 3.4 per cent in 2008, respectively.  The survey showed that vacancy rates for rental condominium apartments in 2008 were lower than vacancy rates in the conventional rental market in Ottawa, Regina, Saskatoon, and Toronto. The highest average monthly rents for two bedroom condominium apartments were in Toronto ($1,625), Vancouver ($1,507), and Calgary ($1,293). All surveyed centres posted average monthly rents for two-bedroom condominium apartments that were higher than average monthly rents for two-bedroom private apartments in the conventional rental market in 2008.

REGINA RENTAL MARKET SURVEY

Regina average vacancy 0.5 percentage points

Moishe Alexander says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) conducted a rental market survey in October 2008 and found the average vacancy rate in Regina’s rental apartments was 0.5 per cent, down 1.2 percentage points from 1.7 per cent in the October 2007 survey. In comparison to other Census Metropolitan Areas, Regina tied with Vancouver and Victoria for the second lowest vacancy rate in Canada. The survey found that no more than 16 vacant suites existed in any rental survey zone. As a whole, the city and surrounding areas had 52 vacant suites in the survey universe at the time the rental market survey took place.

The decline in the average vacancy rate is attributable to increased inmigration stemming from positive job growth. The rising gap between the cost of home ownership and renting through 2007 and the early part of 2008 also kept demand strong for rental accommodation. Most survey zones recorded a decline in the vacancy rate with only the East and Northeast zones experiencing a slight increase in the rate. All survey zones recorded an average vacancy rate less than one per cent. The Central zone recorded a decline of 2.8 percentage points in the average vacancy rate, the largest decline seen in the city comparing the October 2007 results to the 2008 survey. The East and West zones tied for the highest vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent, though this represents less than 10 vacant suites in each of these zones.  The average vacancy rate is up slightly in the East zone and down 1.5 percentage points in the West. Regina South (Wascana and University) recorded an average rate of 0.1 per cent, the lowest average vacancy rate in the city. The survey found one vacant suite in a survey universe of over 1,000 suites. As the name suggests, projects in this zone benefit from the demand created by students attending the university and Saskatchewan Institute of Applied Science and Technology (SIAST). Employees of these two institutions also contribute to rental demand.

Among suite types, the October 2008 survey found that vacancy rates ranged from 0.3 per cent in one-bedroom suites and 1.2 per cent in bachelor and three-bedroom suites. The average vacancy rate is traditionally higher in bachelor suites, as they are less in demand due to their smaller size. One reason for the higher average vacancy for threebedroom suites may be that rent has increased to the point that some rental households have moved to ownership. Notwithstanding the increase in the average vacancy rate, vacant suites are still scarce for these three bedroom suite types.  The survey report features information on the availability of suites within a rental market. A rental unit is available if the unit is vacant, or the existing tenant has given or received official notice to move and a new tenant has not signed a lease. As the definition of availability includes vacant units, the availability rate will always be equal to or greater than the vacancy rate.  Results of the survey indicate that the availability rate was 1.2 per cent, 1.3 percentage points lower than the average availability rate reported in October 2007.

Average rents increase $87 monthly

Moishe Alexander says Average rent for all types of suites increased $87 monthly between survey periods. One-bedroom suites increased $80 resulting in average rent of $634 monthly. Two-bedroom suites escalated $95 to arrive at a monthly average rent of $756.  Three-bedroom plus apartments increased $116 monthly resulting in average monthly rent of $908. The higher than average increase in rent for three-bedroom plus suite types may have contributed to the increase in vacancy. Turning to individual zone results for all types of suites, the largest increase in nominal rent of $137 monthly occurred in East survey zone projects. This zone contains the smallest number of suites in the survey universe. Moreover, it features the largest number of three-bedroom suites, a rare housing form considered desirable by renters due to the size of these suites. These two factors have led to an increase in average rent and resulted in this zone recording the highest average rent for all types of suites.
Regina’s Northwest zone saw the highest average rent for onebedroom apartments at $749 monthly. Projects tend to be newer in this zone and command higher rents. Central Regina recorded the lowest average rent at $587.

Buildings in this zone tend to be older and the suites smaller than in other zones. Census data confirms that household income is the lowest in the city. These suites would appeal to one-person renter households suggesting that household income would be even lower than the average. This limits the potential for higher rental rates.

CMHC’s measure of estimating the growth in rents for a fixed sample of structures is based on structures common to the survey sample for both the 2007 and 2008 surveys.  The measure aims at better understanding rent changes in existing structures by excluding from the calculation the rents of newly built apartment buildings. The methodology section at the end of this report provides detailed information on this measure. For the Regina CMA, the year-over-year gain in average rent from the fixed sample is 13.8 per cent for all types of apartments in all zones. Both onebedroom suites and two-bedroom apartments experienced a 13.5 per cent gain.

Private rental market supply declines

Moishe Alexander says The attraction of homeownership relative to renting in recent years as well as other important factors has had the effect of reducing the size of Regina rental market. According to Census data, rental units declined as a proportion of total dwellings between 2001 and 2006. While the number of private dwellings increased by 4.7 per cent, the number of rental dwellings declined by 1.4 per cent. CMHC’s annual Rental Market Survey shows that the Regina privately initiated rental universe declined by 220 units between 2007 and 2008 because of rental unit conversion to condominiums, closure for renovations or demolition. Furthermore, there have been no additions to the private rental stock in the form of housing starts over the last year.

Rental Affordability Indicator

Moishe Alexander says According to CMHC’s rental affordability indicator, affordability in Regina’s rental market declined this year. The cost of renting a median priced two-bedroom apartment climbed 17 per cent in 2008, while the median income of renter households grew at 5.4 per cent.  The rental affordability indicator in Regina stands at 93 for 2008, the lowest level of affordability on record.

RENTAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Average vacancy rate to rise in 2009

Moishe Alexander says The average vacancy rate for Regina will increase to 1.2 per cent in 2009 as in-migration slows because of a slower increase in employment and rising rents. Renters are doubling up in order to compensate for rising rents thus contributing to the increase in vacancy. In addition, newer, investor-owned condominiums are drawing off demand from existing rental projects Furthermore, Regina’s resale market is experiencing an increase in supply and price increases have slowed. This situation should persist until late 2009 and will lead to more rental households moving to homeownership as the difference in cost between owning and renting slows its rate of increase. Average rents for two bedroom suites in the city will increase to $855 monthly in 2009 due to low vacancies. In addition, rents will increase to compensate for operating and maintenance cost increases experienced in previous years.

CONDOMINIUM AND OTHER SECONDARY RENTAL UNITS – SURVEY RESULTS

Moishe Alexander says Regina’s version of CMHC’s October Rental Market Survey, which covers private row and apartment structures with three or more units, now includes information on rental condominium apartments as well as other types of rental units in the secondary rental market. The additional information should help to provide a more complete overview of all rental markets in the Regina CMA. The methodology section at the end of this report provides more information on this Secondary Rental Market Survey.

Vacancy rate of rental condominium apartments similar to purpose built rental

Moishe Alexander says Table 4.3.1 provides information on the size of the condominium rental apartment market in Regina. Of the 2,590 condominium units sampled, 303 or 11.7 per cent were rental.  The average vacancy rate of 0.3 per cent in Regina’s rental condominium apartments was similar to the vacancy rate of 0.5 per cent for purpose – built rental. At this time, the size of the rental condominium apartment universe does not allow CMHC to determine the average rental rates for such units. The survey found 8,622 households in other secondary rental units of various forms including single and semi-detached, row and other accessory suites. Average rent for all of these types was $764. Average rent for row and semi-detached units was $768. Average rent for single-detached units was $779.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64431/64431_2008_A01.pdf

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says After remaining unchanged for three years at 2.8 per cent, the overall vacancy rate in October 2008 fell to 2.4 per cent. Little new construction and fewer renters moving to homeownership led to the market tightening. The rental market tightened for both small and large apartments. Rents for townhouses and apartments surveyed in both 2007 and 2008 grew by 2.3 per cent, similar to the rate of inflation.

Demand

Drop in Peterborough Vacancy Rate

Moishe Alexander says After holding steady for the past three years at 2.8 per cent, the vacancy rate for privately initiated apartments in buildings of three units or more in the Peterborough Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) dropped to 2.4 per cent in October 2008. The decline was due to an increase in demand.

Moishe Alexander says Demand for rental acommodation has been affected by the decreased demand for homeownership resulting from recent price appreciation, and some moderation in the labour market, particularly for youth.

Few Renters Moving to Homeownership

Moishe Alexander says The main reason the rental market tightened was that fewer renters became first time buyers. The movement into the rental market by youth and other households slowed, but not as much as the movement of renters into home ownership. Because of the appreciation of home prices in the existing home market, some prospective buyers have delayed a move to ownership. Owning has become less attractive, even for families with children, so some families are waiting for the market to become more accessible before they become homeowners. As a result, the vacancy rate  decreased, especially for three bedroom apartments.

Weaker Employment Offsets Demographic Support for Rental Demand

Moishe Alexander says Although the number of youth increased, their movement into the rental market has slowed. The population aged between 15 and 24, an age group typically associated with rental demand and household formation, increased from about 13.5 per cent of the population to about 15 per cent between the 2001 and 2006 census in Peterborough CMA.  At the job market level, service sector employment is growing. Overall part time employment has increased much faster than full time employment, although both are increasing. However, among 15 to 24 year olds, a sharp decrease in part-time employment offset the gains in full-time employment in 2008 and total employment was down. Given the labour market moderation, fewer youth moved out of their parental homes into rental accommodations.

More Rental Demand for Large and Small Size Units

Moishe Alexander says Less movement towards ownership is tightening the market for threebedroom apartments. The vacancy rate edged down to 1.4 per cent from 3.5 per cent in October 2007, while the supply increased by 37 units. Bachelor units showed the same trend. The vacancy rate for these smaller units fell to 1.5 per cent from 3.7 per cent. This decline is a result of an increase in demand which was greater than the supply increase. Bachelor apartments make up 3.2 per cent of the total rental universe. With this small portion, any change in vacancies can have a substantial impact on the vacancy rate for this segment.

For two-bedroom apartments, demand did not change significantly from last year. Changes in both demand and supply led to a drop in the vacancy rate from 2.7 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

Vacancy Rates in Older Buildings Decline

Moishe Alexander says Demand has shifted to older buildings which account for 17.6 per cent of the total stock of rental housing.  The vacancy rate in older buildings built in 1940 and before decreased from 5.8 per cent in October 2007 to 1.8 per cent in October 2008.  These buildings offer spacious units at lower rents. The average rent in this building segment is $674, compared to $858 for newer buildings and in particular those built after 1990. The vacancy rate in buildings built after 1990 started to trend up and reached 2.4 per cent in October 2008 from 1.7 per cent last year.

Apartments With Lower Rents in High Demand

Moishe Alexander says Despite the popularity of high end apartments, affordable rental units have become increasingly attractive.  The demand for apartments with rents between $600 and $699 has jumped up. The vacancy rate fell to two per cent from the 3.5 per cent registered in 2007. The vacancy rate for units with rents in excess of $1,000 moved down from 0.9 in 2007 to 0.7 in 2008.

Slight Decline in Availability

Moishe Alexander says The availability rate is the percentage of apartments that are either vacant or for which the existing tenant has given or has received notice to move out and for which a lease has not been signed by a new tenant. The availability rate indicates the percentage of apartments available to market to prospective tenants. In line with the vacancy rate, the availability rate for townhouses and apartments fell to 4.2 per cent this year, down from the 4.5 per cent registered in 2007. There were relatively fewer bachelor, one bedroom and three bedroom apartments available for rent in October 2008. In contrast, the availability rate for two bedroom apartments rose to 4.4 per cent in October 2008 from 3.8 per cent in the same period last year.

Softer Demand for Townhouses

Moishe Alexander says Demand for townhouses decreased in contrast to 2007 when it had increased. The vacancy rate went up to 2.8 per cent from 2.2 per cent in October 2007. Last year’s tighter demand for this type of dwelling pushed the rents up by 4.5 per cent and consequently made them less attractive this year.

Rent Increase Steady

Moishe Alexander says CMHC measures annual changes in average rents based on a method that compares rental structures that were common to both the 2007 and 2008 surveys. By eliminating the impact of structures coming into or being removed from the rental market universe, rent fluctuations due to changes in market conditions can be analyzed.

Moishe Alexander says Despite the lower vacancy rates, the growth in average rent for townhouses and private apartments was unchanged at 2.3 per cent, in line with the increase of 2.2 per cent of the consumer price index excluding gasoline in the 12 months to September of 2008. However, this rate is above the Residential Tenancies Act Guideline for 2008 of 1.4 per cent. Rent increases ranged from two per cent for two-bedroom units to 5.4 per cent for bachelors. Since bachelors account for less than four per cent of the rental stock, the high increase did not have much impact on the total average rent change.

Rental Market Outlook

Moishe Alexander says Appreciation of house prices and an increase in part time employment have made renting the preferred option for many households. A combination of slow ownership demand and low rental construction will push the vacancy rate down further in 2009.  Consequently, the overall vacancy rate is expected to drop down to 2.2 per cent in October 2009 from 2.4 in 2008 and at the same time the rent for a two-bedroom apartment will inch up to $870.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/65776/65776_2008_A01.pdf

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says Ottawa’s vacancy rate for apartment units fell to 1.4 per cent, the lowest level since 2001. Robust rental demand pushed up average rents faster than the rate of inflation. Increased immigration, along with slower rental construction, will lead to further tightening of the rental market in 2009.

Rental Market Survey Vacancy Results

Moishe Alexander says Rental market data released by CMHC’s latest survey confirmed that the October vacancy rate in the Ottawa Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) experienced tightening during 2008. The proportion of privately initiated apartments vacant in structures with three or more units declined to 1.4 per cent in this year, down from 2.3 per cent in 2007.  The recent level of rental market activity in Ottawa has been mostly driven by strong demand growth.  Rental demand during 2008 was sustained by a stable economy with factors such as strong young adult employment growth, rising costs of homeownership and high migration levels being particularly influential.

Factors Supporting Rental Demand

Higher Homeownership Costs

Moishe Alexander says Ottawa’s economic fundamentals are very strong. In 2008, the labour market strength was supported by a solid trend in job creation and, as a result, Ottawa’s workforce enjoys one of the highest average incomes among Canada’s major cities. However, although strong fulltime employment supports a high level of homeownership demand, record high prices and growing economic uncertainty dampen demand for ownership housing. As a result, some of Ottawa’s potential homeowners have decided to stay in their rented units and postpone their purchase intentions.

Strong Young Adult Employment

Moishe Alexander says Among the various demographic groups affecting the rental market, the young population between the ages of 18 to 24 years old has traditionally been a strong source of demand, since they usually lack the financial means to secure a mortgage.  Consequently, their success in the labour market has a crucial influence on their propensity to move out of the parental home and into the rental market.

Younger adults reached a 20-year record high level of full-time jobs, increasing by 3.8 per cent from January to September, when compared to last year. Therefore, rental demand among this age cohort has remained strong.

Increasing International Migration

Moishe Alexander says International migration flows in Ottawa have been growing at historically high rates, offsetting the weaker inter- and intra-provincial trends in recent years. During the intercensal period of 2001 to 2006, the Capital City received an all-time high annual average in-flow of six thousand immigrants. It is important to note that from arrival it takes an immigrant household between 5 to 7 years to purchase a home which implies greater rental demand.  Interestingly, Ottawa’s growing recent immigrant population was not only younger than the Canadian-born population, but was also on average more educated than their previous immigrant counterparts. Such qualities have allowed recent immigrants to perform well in the labour market, encouraging them to stay in the Capital City. This provided a boost to rental demand during 2008.

Sources of Rental Supply

Slow Rental Construction

Moishe Alexander says On the supply side, the purposebuilt rental construction trend has eased since the peak reached in 2002. The new supply of purposebuilt rental units during the first ten months of 2008 exceeded the average for the past five years only mildly, with just 142 new units built.  At the same time, apartment completions in the 12 months ending in June 2008 were up by only 11 units compared to the same period last year. Indeed, the rental apartment universe has remained virtually unchanged since 2004, which contributed to lower the vacancy rate.

Increase in Condominium Apartment Rentals

Moishe Alexander says Rental market activity in the Ottawa CMA purposed built market is increasingly competing with the supply of condominium apartments rented out by investors. Compared to last year, an additional 313 condominium apartment units were offered for rent in 2008, equivalent to an increase of 8.4 per cent. As a result, the supply of rental units within this segment has reached over 19 per cent of the growing condominium apartment universe in 2008. The total number of condominium apartments rented out comprised 6.7 per cent of the purpose-built apartment rental market supply.

Fewer Secondary Rental Market Units

Moishe Alexander says In 2008 the estimated number of households in the Secondary Rental Market declined by 2.8 per cent, with 35,433 households renting dwellings not covered by CMHC’s Rental Market Survey.1 This total number of housesholds comprises 35% of persons renting in Ottawa.The only property type that gained popularity among renters was single-detached homes, up almost 24 per cent from 2007. Although other Secondary Rental dwellings such as semi-detached, rows, and duplexes still represent 64 per cent of the market, they attracted almost 9 per cent fewer households than last year.

Apartment Rental Market

Vacancy Rate Falls to 1.4 Per Cent

Moishe Alexander says As a result of increasing demand for rental dwellings and slow rental construction, the Rental Market in Ottawa CMA experienced tightening, with widespread reductions in the vacancy rate across all apartment sizes. As well, all rental market zones experienced lower vacancy rates than last year, with New Edinburg/Manor Park/Overbrook and Westboro South/Hampton Pk/ Britannia registering the lowest in Ottawa, both with 0.7 per cent.

Rent Increases Faster than Inflation

Moishe Alexander says The fixed sample average rent in the Ottawa CMA, which effectively compares rent for apartment units surveyed both in 2007 and in 2008, increased by a solid 3.6 per cent. This increase was widespread across all bedroom types.

High Growth in Rent for 3-Bedroom Apartment Units

Moishe Alexander says A significant acceleration in rent increases was experienced by the less common, more expensive three bedroom apartment units, which grew by four per cent from last year.  Such a jump in average rents reduces the cost gap between three bedroom apartments and homeownership.

One reason behind this trend is the growing demand from households seeking a more comfortable lifestyle comparable to that of the less affordable single-family home. Among these households, we find immigrants who tend to have larger families and are more likely to live with their extended family than Canadian born households, thus requiring bigger accommodations.  The vacancy rate for this segment dropped to 1.8 per cent, down from 2.8 per cent in 2007.

Two Bedroom Apartment Rent Exceeds Inflation

Moishe Alexander says Households looking to rent a typical two-bedroom apartment during 2008 faced less choice and higher average rents than a year earlier. The vacancy rate for this apartment type tightened from 2.3 per cent in 2007 down to 1.5 per cent this year, driving the average rent up 3.7 per cent from a year ago.

Popularity of these type of apartments is driven by the fact that over 40 per cent of them are located in popular areas such as Altavista/Hunt Club, Downtown, Westboro/Hampton/ Brittania and Glebe/Old Ottawa South.

Rental Demand Stronger in Regions Close to the Core

Although most regions have been tightening steadily since the 2004 peak, the trendier and more centric regions of Sandy Hill/Lowertown, Glebe/Old Ottawa South, and New Edinburg/Manor Park/Overbrook were among the areas with stronger rental activity in 2008. These rental zones experienced a combination of lower than average vacancy and rent increases above the city average.  Interestingly, the average rent in the area of Gloucester/Cumberland remained relatively flat, even though it experienced one of the most significant drops in the vacancy rate (from 2.6 to 1.1 per cent) and had the second lowest number of units available for rent. In contrast, following previous years’ trend, the less popular area of Vanier offered the cheapest average rent and the highest rate of vacancy.

Lower Vacancy Among Newer and Bigger Structures

Moishe Alexander says Even though vacancy rates declined across all bedroom types and regions, significantly tighter conditions were experienced in trendier and more attractive segments of Ottawa’s Rental Market. Apartment units in newer structures built after 1975 were particularly popular among renters, especially those built after the turn of the century. This type of apartment saw their vacancy rate drop sharply from 2.5 per cent to 1.2 per cent in 2008 and their average rents increase by 5.7 per cent from last year.

Similarly, bigger structures were particularly attractive among households seeking better services and amenities. This was especially true for rental buildings with 100 to 199 units, which saw their vacancy rates cut significantly from last year to just 1 per cent. Thus, monthly rents increased by 4.7 per cent from last year.

Townhome Rental Market

Vacancy Contracts to 2.2 Per Cent

Moishe Alexander says Town home rental activity during 2008 gained intensity as some households seeking single-family home-like lifestyles began to move away from growing resale prices. As a result, the vacancy rate for row house rental units declined to 2.2 per cent in October 2008, down from 2.9 a year earlier.

Average Rent Posts Moderate Increase

Moishe Alexander says Although the average monthly rent for this type of dwelling stayed significantly above that for apartment units, the growth in row house average rents remained below the rate of inflation, at 1.5 per cent. Average rents for row house units tend to be less responsive than apartments to tightening conditions due to their typically dispersed location in suburban areas away from the more expensive Downtown core.

Suburban Regions Tightened the Most

Moishe Alexander says The region of Nepean/Kanata, which currently offers 49 per cent of the total row house rental universe in the Ottawa CMA, experienced substantially tighter rental conditions in 2008.  As some households seek suburban lifestyles in this increasingly popular region, stronger demand cut the number of vacant units almost in half compared to last year, driving the vacancy rate down to 1.9 per cent from 3.2 per cent in 2007 and 5.1 per cent in 2006.

However, the growth in average rent in Nepean/Kanata increased only mildly by 1.8 per cent, and was eclipsed by the jumps seen in other regions closer to the core. This was particularly true for Glebe/Old Ottawa South and Carlington/Iris, which saw growth rates in average rents of 3.4 per cent and 4.2 per cent from last year, respectively.

Condominium Apartment Rental Market

Increasing Popularity of Condominium Apartment Rentals

Moishe Alexander says Despite the increase in condominium apartment rentals, the vacancy rate for this segment remained at 0.5 per cent, steady from last year. At the same time, the average rent stood at $1,093 per month, equivalent to a 22 per cent premium over purpose-built rental apartment units. Such strong demand within the fastest growing segment in Ottawa is being fuelled by its growing popularity among young professionals and empty-nesters who value highquality building services and proximity to the core and its amenities. Not surprisingly, the vacancy rate for rented condominium apartments in buildings with 150 units or more was the lowest, at just 0.2 per cent.

Condominium Apartments Supply Differs by Regions

Moishe Alexander says Pressure for purpose-built rental accommodation in the Downtown core eased considerably since last year due to a steep rise in condominium apartment supply. The purpose-built apartment vacancy rate reached 1.6 per cent in the Downtown core, up from 0.2 per cent in 2007. The inner suburbs experienced tightening in recent years, with its vacancy rate at 0.4 per cent this year, down from 1 per cent in 2007. Such tightening was mostly due to stronger demand pressures arising from the relatively more affordable rents. The popularity of condominium apartment rental remains strong in 2008 in this region, despite the fact that renters faced on average a 20 per cent premium in rent for a two-bedroom condominium apartment, over regular two bedroom rental apartments.

In contrast, the outer suburbs proved to be the preferred area for growth in condominium apartment rentals.  Although these regions saw the fastest yearly supply growth of 14.4 per cent, strong demand resulted in the lowest vacancy rate of 0.1 per cent, down from the already low 0.2 per cent. A relatively lower monthly rent in exchange for suburban lifestyles was an influential factor among renters, who faced an average rent of $940 for a two bedroom condominium apartment or 1 per cent above that of purpose-built rental units.

Affordability Indicator

Moishe Alexander says The rental affordability indicator is a gauge of how affordable a rental market is for those households which rent within that market. A generally accepted rule of thumb for affordability is that a household should spend less than 30 per cent of its gross income on housing. The rental affordability indicator examines a three-year moving average of median income of renter households and compares it to the median rent for a two-bedroom apartment in the centre in which they live. In general, as the indicator increases, the market becomes more affordable. This indicator is further explained in the Methodology section of this report.

According to CMHC’s rental affordability indicator, affordability in Ottawa’srental market improved this year. The indicator has been on an increasing trend since 2005 when it was at a low of 95. This year the median income of renter households grew by 6 per cent, while the median two-bedroom apartment rent jumped by just 4.4 per cent.  As a result, the rental affordability indicator in Ottawa stands at 98 for 2008, up from 97 in 2007.

2009 Rental Market Outlook

Moishe Alexander says A combination of strong rental demand with slow supply of purposed-built apartments will prevail next year, pushing vacancy rates down further to 1.0 per cent.  As well, record-high priced homes and economic uncertainty will deter some renters from jumping into the homeownership market.

Ottawa’s two bedroom apartment rents are expected to grow by 3 per cent in 2009. This increase will be below this year’s growth of 3.7 per cent because there will be lower turnover among tenants. The Residential Tenancies Act allows rent increases over the provincial guideline for apartments that become vacant.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64423/64423_2008_A01.pdf

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says The vacancy rate in the Moncton CMA was lower in 2008 at 2.4 per cent compared to last fall’s results. The largest decline occurred in West Moncton, where the vacancy rate was down 3.5 percentage points to 2.4 per cent. The overall average rent in Greater Moncton was up 2.4 per cent in 2008. Within the region, Moncton City had the largest increase at 2.6 per cent. The highest average rent in Greater Moncton was in Dieppe City at $638. Meanwhile, the average rents in Moncton City and Riverview were slightly lower at $625 and $630, respectively.

Moncton 2008 Rental Market Survey

Greater Moncton Vacancy Rate Declines in 2008

Moishe Alexander says Results from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s recently completed Rental Market Survey* revealed a lower vacancy rate for the Moncton CMA in the fall of 2008.  In October of this year, there were 234 vacant units in Greater Moncton, down from the 419 vacant units recorded during last year’s survey. As a result, the vacancy rate in Greater Moncton fell from 4.3 per cent last year to 2.4 per cent in the fall of 2008.  The expansion of the local rental universe during the past twelve months has not kept up with demand, resulting in fewer vacant units and a lower vacancy rate.

In 2008, the vacancy rate for twobedroom units, which account for approximately 67 per cent of the local inventory, mirrored the performance of the overall vacancy rate, dropping to 2.6 per cent from last year’s rate of 4.3 per cent. For one-bedroom units, the decline in the vacancy rate was even more substantial, down to 1.5 per cent compared to 4.4 per cent last year.

Within the tri-community area, Dieppe City had the lowest vacancy rate at 1.8 per cent, followed by Moncton City and Riverview at 2.4 and 3.4 per cent, respectively. In the outlying areas of the Moncton CMA, the vacancy rate was a low 0.9 per cent.

Stable Demand and Reduced Construction Push Down Local Vacancy Rate Throughout Greater Moncton

Moishe Alexander says The Greater Moncton area has benefited from positive economic growth during the past decade. During this period, annual employment growth in the area has been between two and three per cent annually. To the end of the third quarter, total employment in 2008 was on a record setting pace. With solid economic fundamentals and rising employment, population growth in Greater Moncton was the most significant among New Brunswick’s urban centres, bolstering housing demand. Despite favorable market conditions for home ownership, demand for rental units in the Moncton CMA persists, as evidenced by the lower vacancy rate in 2008. This year also marked the second consecutive decline in Greater Moncton’s vacancy rate after several years of steady increases dating back to 2001, when the vacancy rate was 1.6 per cent.  The most significant vacancy rate fluctuation in the tri-community area occurred in Dieppe City where the vacancy rate dropped from 4.0 per cent last year to 1.8 per cent in 2008, the lowest in the area.

Substantial population growth in recent years has resulted in steady demand for rental units. However, construction activity has not grown in step with demand. Higher than average starts in 2006 pushed up the vacancy rate last year. Subsequently, apartment starts declined in 2007 to a more typical level for the City of Dieppe.  With no apparent decline in demand, and expansion of the local rental universe constrained by fewer apartment starts, the number of vacant units declined in 2008.

The vacancy rate in Moncton City was identical to the overall rate for the CMA at 2.4 per cent. This was not unexpected, as the rental universe in Moncton City accounts for approximately eighty per cent of the

CMA’s overall inventory. Although population growth in Moncton City lagged behind its neighbor, Dieppe, it has nonetheless remained positive as the region’s dynamic economy continues to fuel economic development and attract people to the area. However, as was the case in Dieppe, new rental unit construction has declined in recent years. In fact, last year, apartment starts in Moncton City were substantially lower than the average annual total recorded during the past ten years. Fewer vacant units combined with steady demand have thus pushed down the vacancy rate from 4.4 per cent last year to 2.4 per cent in 2008.

With fewer new rental projects started in Moncton City last year, the vacancy rates in each of the region’s four separate zones were down in 2008. Both the East and North Moncton zones posted moderately lower vacancy rates in 2008 compared to last year. However, in both Central and West Moncton, this year’s vacancy rate was down considerably from 2007 levels. In Central Moncton, the vacancy rate was halved, down to 2.9 per cent from last year’s vacancy rate of 5.8 per cent.  In West Moncton, a similar decline occurred with the local vacancy rate falling from 5.9 per cent last year to 2.4 per cent in 2008.

In both Moncton City and Dieppe City, the significant decline in the vacancy rate is mainly attributed to reduced apartment unit construction.  Consequently, supply has fallen behind demand and the number of new rental units added to the local inventory has not been sufficient to prevent a significant decline in the vacancy rate.

In both centres, developers have shifted some of their focus to semi- detached homes. In recent years, the popularity of semi-detached homes in the Greater Moncton area has resulted in tremendous growth, with the bulk of new units added in Moncton City and Dieppe City. With semi-detached homes, consumers can obtain a newly-built product with a mortgage payment comparable to the typical monthly rent for a newer twobedroom apartment. Semi-detached homes also offer – in many cases – the option to obtain a customized home and they allow the owner to build equity in their new home. As such, semi-detached units have lured an increasing number of individuals to homeownership. The resulting demand has caused some developers to shift their focus from apartments to semi-detached homes, contributing to a reduction in supply and a lower vacancy rate.

In comparison, the growth in semidetached homes in the town of Riverview has been muted. Prior to this year, rental unit construction in the Riverview area had been proceeding at a relatively conservative pace. However, the new Gunningsville Bridge linking Riverview to Moncton’s downtown core has greatly improved accessibility for local residents. As a result, Riverview has benefited from increased apartment starts in both 2007 and 2008. The resulting expansion of the local rental universe has struck a better balance between supply and demand, limiting the decline in the local vacancy rate.  Although Riverview posted a lower vacancy rate in 2008, the decline was modest compared with Moncton City and Dieppe City, falling from 4.2 per cent last year to 3.4 per cent.

Vacancy Rate Lower in Newer Units

Moishe Alexander says In the Greater Moncton area, as is the case in many urban centres across the nation, the trend in residential construction has been towards larger homes with more amenities and living space. A growing number of consumers choosing to rent are also leaning towards larger, more elaborate units. Based on this year’s rental market survey, the vacancy rate for units built after the year 2000 was a low 0.7 per cent. This was a sharp decline from last year’s vacancy rate of 2.8 per cent. The vacancy rate for units constructed between 1990 and 1999 was equally low at 1.7 per cent. For units built prior to 1989, the vacancy rate increased with the age of the structure and varied between 2.1 per cent and 5.0 per cent. The vacancy rate was also lower in the upper rent ranges, which also confirms the fact that many consumers are seeking newer units with added features. In general, the higher priced units in Greater Moncton tend to be those most recently added to the local rental universe since they generally provide more value added items to consumers. In 2008, the vacancy rate for units where rent exceeded $800 declined to 0.7 per cent from last year’s level of 1.4 per cent. Although these units represent a small part of the overall rental universe in the Moncton CMA, they tend to be absorbed quickly once available, as they generally offer additional amenities such as elevators, laundry hookups, additional storage space, and in some cases underground parking. These extra features have been particularly relevant for empty nesters and retirees who favor the maintenance free living of a rental unit, while wanting to maintain the large living space and amenities associated with a single family home.

Rent Increase Moderate in the Moncton CMA

Moishe Alexander says In 2008, the average rent in the Moncton CMA for all unit types was $626, up from last year’s average of $610. The average rent for two bedroom units, which account for approximately two thirds of the CMA’s total rental universe, went from $643 in 2007 to $656 in 2008. Also, as to be expected, the average rent was the highest in structures built after 2000, at $727 per month. With many renters seeking larger, quality built units with additional amenities, newer units are generally absorbed with minimal delay despite the premium on rent.

Within the CMA, Moncton City had the lowest average rent in 2008 at $625 while Dieppe City had the highest at $638. The Town of Riverview was near the midway point between its two neighboring communities at $630. Riverview also posted the largest year-over-year increase in average rent, with a $22 per month increase from last year’s level of $608. Last year, Riverview had more apartment starts than either Moncton City or Dieppe City. As a result, a larger number of new units were added to the rental universe in Riverview. Owing to a competitive marketplace, newly added units typically offer additional amenities to lure potential renters, applying upward pressure on rents. This phenomenon has contributed to the larger increase in the average rent in Riverview.  The health of the local housing market has also had an impact on overall rents in the Moncton CMA. To the end of October, single-detached housing starts, though lower than last year, remained high in historical terms.  During the same period, the resale market, which is not expected to match last year’s record setting performance, has performed beyond expectations, with a minimal decline in sales compared to last year to the end of October. Favorable conditions, for both purchase and new construction, combined with relatively stable mortgage rates, have helped fuel activity in both the new and existing home market. Consequently, the wide range of housing choices available to area residents has limited the increase in average rent to a modest 2.4 per cent in 2008 (the 2.4 per cent average rent increase is based on a fixed sample methodology).

Availability Rate Declines in 2008

Moishe Alexander says Based on the results from the 2008 Rental Market Survey, the availability rate in the Moncton CMA declined in 2008, with a significant drop from 5.7 per cent last year to 3.1 per cent in 2008. Within the CMA, the availability rate was comparable in both Moncton City and Dieppe City at 3.1 and 2.8 per cent, respectively.  Meanwhile, the availability rate in Riverview was slightly higher at 3.9 per cent.

Since many renters prefer a larger space, the majority of new units added to the rental universe tend to be two bedroom units. With fewer new one-bedroom units added to the rental universe, the availability rate for these units was lower in 2008, declining to 1.8 per cent from last year’s total of 5.4 per cent. For two bedroom units, the availability rate was also lower, with a moderate decline to 3.5 per cent in 2008 compared to 5.7 per cent last year.

Rental Affordability Indicator

Moishe Alexander says CMHC recently introduced a rental affordability indicator for major centres. However, the indicator is not available for the Moncton CMA due to a lack of required data for that centre.

Rental Market Outlook

Vacancy Rate to Decrease Moderately in 2009

Moishe Alexander says Last year, the vacancy rate in the Moncton CMA declined following an upward trend that dated back to 2001. In 2008, the downward trend has been maintained with a further decline in the area’s overall vacancy rate. Although apartment starts in recent years have remained at historically high levels, they have nonetheless been significantly lower than the peak years of 2002 and 2003. Despite the steady construction activity, the vacancy rate dropped to 2.4 per cent in 2008 as demand, bolstered by positive in-migration, outpaced the increase in supply. Apartment starts are not expected to surpass last year’s total in 2008 and will likely post a modest decline this year and a further decline in 2009. Although employment in Greater Moncton has been at record high levels, inmigration is not expected to show significant growth next year. As a result, demand for rental units will likely remain stable over the course of the next 12 months. With fewer apartment starts and resilient demand for rental units, expect the overall vacancy rate to be between 2.0 and 2.5 per cent by the fall of 2009. Meanwhile, expect an average rent increase between 2.3 and 2.8 per cent.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64407/64407_2008_A01.pdf

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says Kingston’s vacancy rate for apartment buildings with at least three units dropped from 3.2 per cent in 2007 to 1.3 per in 2008. As a result the local rate is now at its lowest level since 2002, when the rate was 0.9 per cent. The matched sample average rent for two bedroom apartments in existing structures in Kingston was up 3.1 per cent from last year. Cost gap between owning and renting has widened and along with economic uncertainty is contributing to lower vacancies.

Kingston’s Vacancy Rate Posts Largest Decline Among Ontario Centres

Moishe Alexander says According to the biannual rental market survey conducted in October 2008 by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) average vacancy rate in privately initiated rental apartments with three or more units dropped from 3.2 per cent in 2007 to 1.3 per cent in 2008. As a result, the local rate is now the lowest vacancy rate since 2002 when the rate was 0.9 per cent.  Of the 15 CMAs surveyed in Ontario, Kingston had the third lowest vacancy rate behind Greater Sudbury (0.9 per cent) and Barrie (1.2 per cent). This tightening rental market in Kingston is primarily due to the fact that while demand has been increasing, the supply of rental units has remained relatively flat.  There was no new rental construction in Kingston this year.

A number of factors have increased rental demand putting downward pressure on vacancy rates. First, according to recent surveys conducted by CMHC on homebuying intentions, fewer renter households have been in the market planning a home purchase in recent years. This story was supported by lower ownership sales in Kingston throughout 2008. In essence, the weaker local economy in Kingston has slowed the movement of renters into homeownership market. In fact, healthy job growth in the lower paying service employment sector helped support demand for rental accommodation.  Generally, lower earning households possess a weaker financial capacity to successfully generate downpayment for a new home.  Another factor is increasing enrolment at both Queen’s University and St. Lawrence College, as students are traditionally a strong driver of rental demand. On the supply side, between January and October 2008, there were only 54 rental units absorbed into the Kingston rental market, down from the 155 units recorded during the same period last year.

Downtown Vacancy Rate Declines

Moishe Alexander says The areas of “old” Kingston (Zone 1) registered the second lowest vacancy rate in 2008, indicating that apartments remain harder to find in the core than in the suburbs. The average vacancy rate in the down-town area dropped from 4.3 per cent in 2007 to 1.2 per cent in 2008.  During the second half of 2008, fulltime employment among youth has been particularly strong. Generally, the youth population tends to occupy entry-level rental accommodation typically closer to shops and schools. Therefore, the decline in vacancies in downtown Kingston, particularly among older rental units (built between 1960 and 1974) and less expensive rental units, is evidence of vibrant youth-driven demand in this zone.

In Zone 2 (which encompasses Polson Park, Calvin Park and Portsmouth Village) the vacancy rate retreated again to 0.9 per cent, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. For two consecutive years, this zone has registered the lowest average vacancy rate across the entire Kingston CMA.

Meanwhile, in suburban Zone 3 (Kingscourt, Rideau Heights, Glenarden, and Strathcona Park) the vacancy rate declined 1.6 percentage points to 1.7 per cent from October 2007. A similar drop in average vacancy rate occurred in Zone 4 where the rate fell from 4.4 per cent in 2007 to 1.9 per cent in 2008.

High-End Rental Units Becoming More Popular

Moishe Alexander says An emerging trend in the Kingston CMA rental market is the declining vacancy rates at high-end rental units.

The lower priced units recorded the highest vacancy rates in the CMA.  With strong overall employment growth year-to-date, renters in October showed higher preference for affluent rental units. Furthermore, the proximity to public services tends to support the demand for these up-scale rental units.

Kingston’s Average Rents Trending Up

Moishe Alexander says Tighter Rental Market Conditions translated into average rent increases of between 1.9 and 3.5 per cent across all bedroom types and zones.  This was different from last year’s experience, when some areas recorded small declines. Hence, the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in existing structures increased by 3.1 per cent, well above the 2.6 per cent increase in the overall cost of living index.

Interestingly, however, the October 2008 survey shows both the rent increases and vacancy rates in Kingston exhibited similar trend among all the zones. Although the area of Zone 4 remains home to the highest rents, there appears little difference between the downtown and outlying areas.

Rental Market Outlook

Moishe Alexander says As a result of increased concern among potential first time home buyers about the Canadian economic outlook, coupled with no new additions of purposed built rental stock , the apartment vacancy rate in Kingston is expected to remain relatively low at 1.5 per cent in October 2009. The average two-bedroom rent is projected to advance by 2.8 per cent. Although an overall slow job market is anticipated for 2009, job creation among the lower paying sectors will remain strong and contribute to additional tightness in the rental market.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64671/64671_2008_A01.pdf

Moishe Alexander’s Review

Highlights

Moishe Alexander says The average vacancy rate in the Kitchener CMA moved lower to 1.8 per cent. In the Guelph CMA, the average vacancy rate moved higher to 2.3 per cent. A number of factors which include a younger population, immigration, employment and less movement of renters to homeownership contributed to the change in rental demand. Rental housing demand will increase slightly in 2009. The vacancy rate will edge lower to 1.6 per cent in the Kitchener CMA and to two per cent in the Guelph CMA.

Minimal Changes in Rental Demand in Kitchener and Guelph

Vacancy Rate Lower in Kitchener/Higher in Guelph

Moishe Alexander says Demand for rental apartments in the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs moved in opposite directions. A small increase in demand contributed to a decline in the average vacancy rate for privately initiated rental apartments in the Kitchener CMA to 1.8 per cent from 2.7 per cent in 2007.  In the Guelph CMA, demand eased and the vacancy rate increased to 2.3 per cent from 1.9 per cent last year.  Although higher, the vacancy rate this year was still well below the levels seen in the five-year period between 2002 and 2006 when the vacancy rate averaged close to 3.3 per cent.
A number of factors, both demographic and economic, contributed to the changes in rental demand. In both Kitchener and Guelph, these factors include a younger population, strong immigration, youth employment, little employment growth and less movement of renters to homeownership.

Lower First-time Buyer Demand

Moishe Alexander says Many renter households took advantage of low mortgage rates throughout this decade and the longer amortization periods after 2006 and as a result, pent-up demand is largely satisfied and fewer renter households are planning to buy a home. House prices continue to rise and are discouraging some renter households from moving into homeownership. Some renter households may delay their home purchase as a consequence and remain in their rental accommodation for a longer period.

This lower first-time buyer demand is more pronounced in the Kitchener CMA as the difference between owning a home and renting an apartment is higher. In the Guelph CMA, steady job creation coupled with low borrowing costs enabled a lower but steady movement of first-time buyers into home ownership.

Population Characteristics Affect Demand

Moishe Alexander says A young population, a high level of immigration and declining household size contributed to the increased rental demand this year in the Kitchener CMA. These factors also kept demand in the Guelph CMA at a relatively strong level.

According to the 2006 Census, the Kitchener and Guelph CMAs have young populations compared to the Ontario average. Younger households are more likely to rent than older age groups. A large student population and a strong high-tech sector have contributed to the high youth presence and strong demand for rental housing. As well, many young people who gain full-time employment will move out of their parental home into rental accommodation. In the Kitchener CMA, while overall employment for those aged 15-24 has fallen, more than 1,200 full-time jobs in this age group have been created in the CMA in the last year encouraging youth household formation. In the Guelph CMA, while overall employment for those aged 15-24 has declined marginally, full-time jobs in this age group have fallen, limiting the formation of youth rental households.

In the 12 months ending June 30, 2007, more than 3,000 immigrants made their new home in the Kitchener CMA. Due to a high employment rate and relatively more affordable home prices and rents compared to the GTA, immigrants find the Kitchener CMA an attractive place to live. A large proportion of persons new to Canada will initially rent as it takes time to gain employment, establish a credit rating and save for a down payment.

Moishe Alexander says Smaller household size added to the demand for rental housing. According to the 2006 Census, one-person, lone-parent and couples without children households increased at a higher rate than couples with children households. A higher percentage of these smaller-sized households rent. The oldest baby-boomers are now in their sixties and many are looking to downsize. Renting is a viable option.

Resilient Local Economies

Moishe Alexander says The local area economies have remained resilient despite uncertainty in global financial markets and a weak US economy.

Although job growth has slowed in the Kitchener CMA, employment has remained at a high level. Job uncertainty and less confidence in the economy have delayed some renter households’ decision to purchase a home. However, for the first three quarters of 2008, employment in the Kitchener CMA grew by 2.4 per cent compared to the same period in 2007. All of the job gains were in full-time employment. While the goods-producing sector continues to be a drag on the local economy, the services sector continues to add jobs.

In the Guelph CMA, employment has remained at a high level with job growth of more than six per cent in the first ten months of this year compared to the same period in 2007.  With strong job growth in the 25-44 and 45-64 age groups, some renter households in these age groups were able to purchase a home.

Condominium Apartment Completions

Moishe Alexander says Condominiums are a more affordable type of housing compared to single detached homes and are a viable alternative to renting for first-time buyers. More than 80 condominium apartments were completed in the Guelph CMA this year. First-time buyers and empty-nesters, who may otherwise have rented an apartment, are attracted to this type of ownership housing. In the Kitchener CMA, only 50 condominium apartments were completed in the same period.

Rent Growth Below Inflation

Moishe Alexander says The percentage change of average rent from fixed sample is 0.9 per cent for a two-bedroom apartment in the Kitchener CMA and 1.6 per cent in the Guelph CMA. This measure is strictly based on structures that were common to the survey sample for both the 2007 and 2008 surveys. For the Kitchener CMA, this increase was well below the Residential Tenancies Act (RTA) guideline for 2007 of 1.4 per cent.  As well, this increase was below the inflation rate. In the Guelph CMA this increase was slightly above the RTA guideline for 2007, but below the inflation rate.

Rental Supply Declines In Kitchener

Moishe Alexander says At 174, the number of purpose-built rental apartments completed in the Kitchener CMA since June 2007 was somewhat lower than usual. Over the last five years, the number of new rental apartments completed has averaged about 650 annually.  Despite this additional supply, the private rental apartment universe decreased by 184 units because some apartments were converted to other uses. With more than 800 rental apartments under construction currently, completions next year will be more in line with the longerterm average.

No purpose-built rental apartments were completed in the Guelph CMA since June 2007. As a result, the private rental apartment universe remained unchanged this year.

Low Vacancy Rates for One and Two-Bedroom Apartments

Moishe Alexander says The vacancy rate for all bedroom types of rental apartments decreased in the Kitchener CMA The majority of private rental apartments are one and two-bedroom units. These two unit types accounted for 93 per cent of the total apartment rental universe and have the lowest vacancy rate at 1.8 per cent. The one-bedroom apartment vacancy rate edged lower to 1.8 per cent from 2.2 per cent a year ago, while the two-bedroom apartment vacancy rate declined more significantly from 2.9 per cent to 1.8 per continent

Moishe Alexander says A more than 100 unit decline in the supply of two-bedroom apartments combined with increased rental demand pushed the vacancy rate down to this level, the lowest since 2001. The widening gap between the average principal and interest payment for a resale home and the average two-bedroom rent has impacted some renters’ interest in moving into homeownership. With the more diverse financing options available after 2006, many first-time buyers were able to enter the resale market earlier than would normally have been expected, resulting in lower demand for homeownership from current renters.

Affordability Indicator

Moishe Alexander says According to CMHC’s rental affordablility indicator, affordablility in Kitchener’s rental market increased this year. The rental affordability indicator in Kitchener stands at 108 for 2008, up from 101 in 2007. The 2007 indicator was the lowest level of affordability Kitchener has seen in the thirteen years for which the indicator is available. The rental affordability indicator is not available for Guelph due to a lack of required data for that centre.
Rental Market Outlook: 2009

Moishe Alexander says Rental housing demand will increase slightly in 2009. The vacancy rate will edge lower to 1.6 per cent in the Kitchener CMA and to two per cent in the Guelph CMA. In the Kitchener CMA, demand for rental accommodation in 2009 will be boosted by immigration, rental household growth and little movement into homeownership. Migrants will continue to be attracted to the CMA due to its relatively stronger economy compared to other Ontario CMAs.

On balance, population will increase by 2,500 next year due to international migration. Immigrants represent more than 50 per cent of the net population increase due to migration. They tend to rent when they first move to Canada. Due to the expected lower job growth and uncertain economic conditions, more renter households will delay their plans to move into homeownership.  Although the gap between average rent and average mortgage carrying cost will narrow somewhat in 2009, the number of rental households will continue to grow. In the Kitchener CMA, with few new condominium apartments being built, younger, downsizing and aging households have little alternative but to rent.  On the supply side, with more than 800 rental apartments under construction in the Kitchener CMA, rental completions will be more in line with the historical average in 2009. This increased supply will partially offset the higher demand.  In the Guelph CMA, although 177 rental apartments are currently under construction, no new rental apartments will be completed by next October. With higher demand and no new supply, the rental market will tighten. On the other hand, with more new condominium apartment completions next year, some renter households will be able to move to ownership housing in this more affordable type of housing. As well, due to less than optimistic job prospects, some youth will remain in their parental home longer.

Moishe Alexander says With the vacancy rate in both CMAs expected to be below its 20-year average in 2009, there will be slightly more room to raise rents. In both CMAs, rent increases in 2009 will be in line with the Residential Tenancies Act guideline for occupied units of 1.8 per cent.

You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64399/64399_2008_A01.pdf