OTTAWA, August 11, 2009 — The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts decreased to 132,100 units in July from 137,800 units in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
“The slight decline in July’s housing starts is mostly attributable to the volatile multiple starts segment,” said Bob Dugan, Chief Economist at CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre. “Although July registered a decline, housing starts are expected to improve throughout 2009.”
Over the next several years, housing starts will gradually become more closely aligned to demographic demand, which is currently estimated at about 175,000 units per year.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased 5.5 per cent to 113,500 units in July. Urban multiple starts decreased nine per cent to 61,000 units, while urban single starts moved down 1.1 per cent to 52,500 units in July.
July’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased 16.6 per cent in Quebec. Urban starts declined 17 per cent in the Prairies, 15 per cent in Ontario, 10 per cent in British Columbia, and 1.4 per cent in Atlantic Canada.
Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 18,600 units in July.
Following gains in April, employment decreased by 42,000 in May, led by further manufacturing losses in Ontario. The unemployment rate rose by 0.4 percentage points to 8.4%, the highest rate in 11 years. Since the employment peak of last October, employment has fallen by 363,000 or 2.1%.
While there were pronounced losses in Ontario in May, employment increased in Manitoba, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan, and was little changed in all other provinces.
In addition to manufacturing losses in May, transportation and warehousing also declined. Public administration was the only industry with a notable employment increase.
Employment declines in May affected mostly men and women aged 25 to 54, while there were employment increases among women aged 55 and over.
There were large declines in full-time employment (-59,000) in May, bringing total full-time losses since October to 406,000 (-2.9%). Over the same period, part-time employment has continued to trend up, increasing by 44,000 (+1.4%).
The average hourly wage for employees was 3.4% higher in May compared with the same month a year earlier, the lowest year-over-year increase in two years.
Continued employment losses in Ontario
Ontario was the only province to experience a substantial employment decline in May, down 60,000, bringing total losses since last October to 234,000 or 3.5%. While Ontario accounts for 39% of the total working-age population, it has experienced 64% of overall employment losses since the start of the labour market downturn.
Ontario’s unemployment rate in May rose by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month to 9.4%, the highest in 15 years.
In May, both manufacturing and construction employment continued their downward trend in Ontario. Since October, the number of workers in manufacturing has fallen by 14.0%, while it has decreased by 9.3% in construction.
Employment in Quebec was unchanged in May. An increase in labour force participation pushed the unemployment rate up to 8.7%. Since last October, employment is down by 0.7% in Quebec.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan added employment in May with gains of 3,900 and 3,100 respectively. Both provinces had an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in the country, and are the only two provinces with an increase in employment since last October.
Following declines in the two previous months, employment increased by 3,600 in Nova Scotia in May.
Sharp decline in manufacturing employment
Manufacturing employment continued on its downward trend with a decline of 58,000 in May, mostly in Ontario. This brings losses since October to 186,000 or 9.4%, with the largest decline in transportation equipment manufacturing. Ontario has experienced the brunt of overall manufacturing losses over this period.
In May 2009, there were 778,000 factory workers in Ontario, the lowest level since comparable data became available in 1976. Manufacturing employment in Ontario reached a peak in November 2002 with 1,115,000 workers.
There was also a decline in transportation and warehousing (-16,000) in May, bringing total losses in that industry to 48,000 (-5.5%) since October. Public administration was the only industry with notable gains in May, up 19,000.
Self-employment fell by 32,000 in May, offsetting the gain in April. The number of private sector employees continued to decline, down 36,000 in May, while public sector employment was up 27,000, largely driven by the gains in public administration.
Since October, the number of private sector employees has fallen by 2.9% and public sector employment has declined by 1.3%. Over the same period, the number of self-employed has shown little change.
Fewer people aged 25 to 54 working
Employment fell by 50,000 in May for persons aged 25 to 54, with losses of 28,000 among men and 22,000 among women. Since the start of the labour market downturn, however, it is men in this age group who have experienced most of the losses, down 3.4%, while employment among core-age women has fallen by 1.1% over the same period.
Employment for women aged 55 and over increased in May, up 16,000. Since last October, employment among older women has risen by 3.1%, while employment for older men has shown little change.
Although employment edged down among youths aged 15 to 24 in May, losses for this group have been substantial during the current labour market downturn, with losses since last October totalling 134,000 or 5.1%. In May, the unemployment rate for youths climbed to 14.9%, the highest rate since 1999.
A difficult start to the summer for students aged 20 to 24
From May to August, the Labour Force Survey collects labour market information about young people aged 15 to 24 who were attending school full-time in March and who intend to return to school in the fall. The May survey results provide the first indicators of the summer job market, especially for students aged 20 to 24, as students aged 15 to 19 were not yet out of school for the summer. The data for June, July and August will provide further insight into the summer job market. The published estimates are not seasonally adjusted; therefore comparisons can only be made from one year to another.
The summer job market started in May for students aged 20 to 24. The number of employed students fell by 59,000 compared with a year earlier, all in full time. At the same time, their participation in the labour force fell substantially from 75.2% to 68.6%. May’s unemployment rate was 18.3% for this group of students, compared with 15.4% in May 2008.
February 23, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting the Regina CMA Rental Market
Moishe Alexander’s Review
Highlights
Moishe Alexander says the average vacancy rate in Regina’s rental apartments was 0.5 per cent in October 2008, down from the 1.7 per cent in October 2007. Regina tied with Vancouver and Victoria for the second lowest vacancy rate in Canada. Average rent for all types of suites increased $87 monthly between surveys. One-bedroom suites increased $80 monthly and two-bedroom suites went up $95 monthly. Three-bedroom plus apartments increased $116 monthly. The average vacancy rate for Regina will increase to 1.2 per cent in 2009 as in-migration slows because of a slower increase in employment and rising rents.
NATIONAL VACANCY RATE DECREASED IN OCTOBER 2008
Moishe Alexander says The average rental apartment vacancy rate in Canada’s 34 major centres decreased to 2.2 per cent in October 2008 from 2.6 per cent in October 2007. The centres with the highest vacancy rates in 2008 were Windsor (14.6 per cent), St. Catharines-Niagara (4.3 per cent), and Oshawa (4.2 per cent). On the other hand, the major urban centres with the lowest vacancy rates were Kelowna (0.3 per cent), Victoria (0.5 per cent), Vancouver (0.5 per cent), and Regina (0.5 per cent). Demand for rental housing in Canada increased due to high migration levels, youth employment growth, and the large gap between the cost of homeownership and renting. Rental construction and competition from the condominium market were not enough to offset growing rental demand. The highest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Calgary ($1,148), Vancouver ($1,123), Toronto ($1,095), and Edmonton ($1,034), followed by Ottawa ($995), Kelowna ($967), and Victoria ($965). The lowest average monthly rents for two-bedroom apartments in new and existing structures were in Trois-Rivières ($505), Saguenay ($518), and Sherbrooke ($543). Year-over-year comparison of rents in new and existing structures can be slightly misleading because rents in newly-built structures tend to be higher than in existing buildings. However, by excluding new structures, we can get a better indication of actual rent increases paid by most tenants. The average rent for two bedroom apartments in existing structures increased in all major centres. The largest rent increases in existing structures were recorded in Saskatoon (20.3 per cent), Regina (13.5 per cent), Edmonton (9.2 per cent), and Kelowna (8.4 per cent). Overall, the average rent for twobedroom apartments in existing structures across Canada’s 34 major centres increased by 2.9 per cent between October 2007 and October 2008.
CMHC’s October 2008 Rental
Moishe Alexander says Market Survey also covers condominium apartments offered for rent in Calgary, Edmonton, Montréal, Ottawa, Québec, Regina, Saskatoon, Toronto, Vancouver, and Victoria. In 2008, vacancy rates for rental condominium apartments were below one per cent in four of the 10 centres surveyed. Rental condominium vacancy rates were the lowest in Regina, Toronto, Ottawa, and Vancouver. However, Calgary and Edmonton registered the highest vacancy rates for condominium apartments at 4.0 per cent and 3.4 per cent in 2008, respectively. The survey showed that vacancy rates for rental condominium apartments in 2008 were lower than vacancy rates in the conventional rental market in Ottawa, Regina, Saskatoon, and Toronto. The highest average monthly rents for two bedroom condominium apartments were in Toronto ($1,625), Vancouver ($1,507), and Calgary ($1,293). All surveyed centres posted average monthly rents for two-bedroom condominium apartments that were higher than average monthly rents for two-bedroom private apartments in the conventional rental market in 2008.
REGINA RENTAL MARKET SURVEY
Regina average vacancy 0.5 percentage points
Moishe Alexander says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) conducted a rental market survey in October 2008 and found the average vacancy rate in Regina’s rental apartments was 0.5 per cent, down 1.2 percentage points from 1.7 per cent in the October 2007 survey. In comparison to other Census Metropolitan Areas, Regina tied with Vancouver and Victoria for the second lowest vacancy rate in Canada. The survey found that no more than 16 vacant suites existed in any rental survey zone. As a whole, the city and surrounding areas had 52 vacant suites in the survey universe at the time the rental market survey took place.
The decline in the average vacancy rate is attributable to increased inmigration stemming from positive job growth. The rising gap between the cost of home ownership and renting through 2007 and the early part of 2008 also kept demand strong for rental accommodation. Most survey zones recorded a decline in the vacancy rate with only the East and Northeast zones experiencing a slight increase in the rate. All survey zones recorded an average vacancy rate less than one per cent. The Central zone recorded a decline of 2.8 percentage points in the average vacancy rate, the largest decline seen in the city comparing the October 2007 results to the 2008 survey. The East and West zones tied for the highest vacancy rate of 0.8 per cent, though this represents less than 10 vacant suites in each of these zones. The average vacancy rate is up slightly in the East zone and down 1.5 percentage points in the West. Regina South (Wascana and University) recorded an average rate of 0.1 per cent, the lowest average vacancy rate in the city. The survey found one vacant suite in a survey universe of over 1,000 suites. As the name suggests, projects in this zone benefit from the demand created by students attending the university and Saskatchewan Institute of Applied Science and Technology (SIAST). Employees of these two institutions also contribute to rental demand.
Among suite types, the October 2008 survey found that vacancy rates ranged from 0.3 per cent in one-bedroom suites and 1.2 per cent in bachelor and three-bedroom suites. The average vacancy rate is traditionally higher in bachelor suites, as they are less in demand due to their smaller size. One reason for the higher average vacancy for threebedroom suites may be that rent has increased to the point that some rental households have moved to ownership. Notwithstanding the increase in the average vacancy rate, vacant suites are still scarce for these three bedroom suite types. The survey report features information on the availability of suites within a rental market. A rental unit is available if the unit is vacant, or the existing tenant has given or received official notice to move and a new tenant has not signed a lease. As the definition of availability includes vacant units, the availability rate will always be equal to or greater than the vacancy rate. Results of the survey indicate that the availability rate was 1.2 per cent, 1.3 percentage points lower than the average availability rate reported in October 2007.
Average rents increase $87 monthly
Moishe Alexander says Average rent for all types of suites increased $87 monthly between survey periods. One-bedroom suites increased $80 resulting in average rent of $634 monthly. Two-bedroom suites escalated $95 to arrive at a monthly average rent of $756. Three-bedroom plus apartments increased $116 monthly resulting in average monthly rent of $908. The higher than average increase in rent for three-bedroom plus suite types may have contributed to the increase in vacancy. Turning to individual zone results for all types of suites, the largest increase in nominal rent of $137 monthly occurred in East survey zone projects. This zone contains the smallest number of suites in the survey universe. Moreover, it features the largest number of three-bedroom suites, a rare housing form considered desirable by renters due to the size of these suites. These two factors have led to an increase in average rent and resulted in this zone recording the highest average rent for all types of suites.
Regina’s Northwest zone saw the highest average rent for onebedroom apartments at $749 monthly. Projects tend to be newer in this zone and command higher rents. Central Regina recorded the lowest average rent at $587.
Buildings in this zone tend to be older and the suites smaller than in other zones. Census data confirms that household income is the lowest in the city. These suites would appeal to one-person renter households suggesting that household income would be even lower than the average. This limits the potential for higher rental rates.
CMHC’s measure of estimating the growth in rents for a fixed sample of structures is based on structures common to the survey sample for both the 2007 and 2008 surveys. The measure aims at better understanding rent changes in existing structures by excluding from the calculation the rents of newly built apartment buildings. The methodology section at the end of this report provides detailed information on this measure. For the Regina CMA, the year-over-year gain in average rent from the fixed sample is 13.8 per cent for all types of apartments in all zones. Both onebedroom suites and two-bedroom apartments experienced a 13.5 per cent gain.
Private rental market supply declines
Moishe Alexander says The attraction of homeownership relative to renting in recent years as well as other important factors has had the effect of reducing the size of Regina rental market. According to Census data, rental units declined as a proportion of total dwellings between 2001 and 2006. While the number of private dwellings increased by 4.7 per cent, the number of rental dwellings declined by 1.4 per cent. CMHC’s annual Rental Market Survey shows that the Regina privately initiated rental universe declined by 220 units between 2007 and 2008 because of rental unit conversion to condominiums, closure for renovations or demolition. Furthermore, there have been no additions to the private rental stock in the form of housing starts over the last year.
Rental Affordability Indicator
Moishe Alexander says According to CMHC’s rental affordability indicator, affordability in Regina’s rental market declined this year. The cost of renting a median priced two-bedroom apartment climbed 17 per cent in 2008, while the median income of renter households grew at 5.4 per cent. The rental affordability indicator in Regina stands at 93 for 2008, the lowest level of affordability on record.
RENTAL MARKET OUTLOOK
Average vacancy rate to rise in 2009
Moishe Alexander says The average vacancy rate for Regina will increase to 1.2 per cent in 2009 as in-migration slows because of a slower increase in employment and rising rents. Renters are doubling up in order to compensate for rising rents thus contributing to the increase in vacancy. In addition, newer, investor-owned condominiums are drawing off demand from existing rental projects Furthermore, Regina’s resale market is experiencing an increase in supply and price increases have slowed. This situation should persist until late 2009 and will lead to more rental households moving to homeownership as the difference in cost between owning and renting slows its rate of increase. Average rents for two bedroom suites in the city will increase to $855 monthly in 2009 due to low vacancies. In addition, rents will increase to compensate for operating and maintenance cost increases experienced in previous years.
CONDOMINIUM AND OTHER SECONDARY RENTAL UNITS – SURVEY RESULTS
Moishe Alexander says Regina’s version of CMHC’s October Rental Market Survey, which covers private row and apartment structures with three or more units, now includes information on rental condominium apartments as well as other types of rental units in the secondary rental market. The additional information should help to provide a more complete overview of all rental markets in the Regina CMA. The methodology section at the end of this report provides more information on this Secondary Rental Market Survey.
Vacancy rate of rental condominium apartments similar to purpose built rental
Moishe Alexander says Table 4.3.1 provides information on the size of the condominium rental apartment market in Regina. Of the 2,590 condominium units sampled, 303 or 11.7 per cent were rental. The average vacancy rate of 0.3 per cent in Regina’s rental condominium apartments was similar to the vacancy rate of 0.5 per cent for purpose – built rental. At this time, the size of the rental condominium apartment universe does not allow CMHC to determine the average rental rates for such units. The survey found 8,622 households in other secondary rental units of various forms including single and semi-detached, row and other accessory suites. Average rent for all of these types was $764. Average rent for row and semi-detached units was $768. Average rent for single-detached units was $779.
