Posted: June 16, 2009 at 11:56 am | Tags: activity, aflutter, Alexaner, Association, Average, Brings, Calgary, canada, canadian funding corp, canadian funding corporation, cent, CEO, CFC, Edmonton, Gregory Klump, May, Moishe, moishe alexander, Montreal, National, price, record, sale, Toronto, Vancouver
All the Canadian newspapers are aflutter because the Canadian Real Estate Association released their monthly report today, with positive news. I think people tend to get over excited about these releases whether positive or negative, but, here is the gist of it.
Resales of existing Canadian homes showed continuing improvements in in May, with both the number of transactions and the national average price on the rise. The national average sale price in May hit the highest monthly level on record, at $319,757, which was up four-tenths of a percentage point from the previous record in May 2008.
The real-estate association said the dollar value of sales through its members reached $11.4 billion in May, up 10 per cent from the previous month and more than 50 per cent above the low of $7.5 billion in January.
The association said the the rebound in activity was led in some of the most expensive local markets in Canada and that had the effect up pushing the national average price upward.
Seasonally adjusted sales were up on a monthly basis in about 70% of local markets. Monthly activity gains in Toronto (9%), Calgary (25%), Montreal (10%), Vancouver (8%), and Edmonton (12%) contributed most to the overall increase in monthly activity.
“Inventory levels are still high in many markets, but fewer new listings and rising sales activity suggests that the selection of homes available for sale may shrink as the year progresses. The supply of homes up for sale needs to be drawn down further before average price increases become more widespread among local markets,” said CREA economist Gregory Klump.
http://www.edmontonrealestateblog.com/my_weblog/2009/06/edmonton-brings-up-the-national-average.html
Posted: February 24, 2009 at 7:29 pm | Tags: activity, addition, Alexander, apartment, canada, canadian funding corp, canadian funding corporation, cent, City, construction, Edmonton, growth, home, Housing Market, Kingston, market, MLS, Moishe, moishe alexander, Montreal, Ontario, price, ratio, Resale, South Frontenac, year
February 24, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Kingston Housing Market
Moishe Alexander’s Review
Single-Detached Starts Remain Resilient in 2008
Moishe Alexander says Single-detached starts should remain relatively flat over the next two years as gains in Kingston City are expected to offset weaknesses in South Frontenac Township. Therefore, construction for this type of dwelling is forecast to reach 570 units in 2008, close to the 600 units recorded in 2007. Year-to-date single starts have exceeded last year’s levels. But in the months ahead, construction activity will moderate amid growing concerns about the economic and job market conditions in Canada.
Next year, however, single-detached starts will ease further by nine per cent to 520 units, as builders react to rising new home inventories and sustained competition from the existing homes market. The recent surge in new listings provides more choice in the market-place and will snare many first-time home buyers away from the new homes market. Nevertheless, the high end and custom design single-detached homes will maintain market shares as some baby boomers look to build their dream homes. This will help sustain single starts in the coming years.
New Semi-Detached and Row Units Gaining Ground
Moishe Alexander says While single-detached homes are most popular among home buyers in Kingston, many first-time buyers will more likely have to settle for semidetached, since the average prices of new single-detached homes across Kingston appear beyond the reach of less affluent households. As a result, semi-detached starts are predicted to reach 40 units this year over the 16 units posted in 2007. In 2009, however, starts for this type of dwellings are anticipated to decline slightly as the economy slowly recovers.
Meanwhile, row starts will retreat to 25 units in 2008 before climbing to 60 units in 2009. In general, slow economic and job market activity will translate into a shift in consumer demand away from single detached homes to less expensive townhomes and semis.
Expect Low Apartment Starts to Pull Down Total Starts
Moishe Alexander says New apartment starts are expected to fall this year and next. Construction has been inactive year-to-date as the market continues to absorb the high influx of new rental units that were started over the past two years. In addition, weak youth employment growth, low international migration combined with high vacancy rate point toward a decrease in new apartment starts in the next two years.
Although gradual and in line with demographic changes, the decline in apartment starts will prompt total housing starts to moderate from 880 units in 2007 to 635 in 2008 and further to 610 in 2009. In addition, negative net migration in the Kingston CMA is predicted as high youth unemployment encourages many young adults to leave the Kingston area for the bigger cities. According to its recent publication, Statistics Canada reported that 9.1 per cent and 8.6 per cent of Kingstonians left the Kingston CMA for Montreal and Edmonton respectively – between 2001 and 2006.
Resale Market
Resale Transactions to Mirror Record Set in 2006
Moishe Alexander says Sales of existing homes through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS) are forecast to ease by 3.9 per cent this year compared to last year’s record level, and then ease an additional 0.8 per cent in 2009.
Despite the moderation in MLS sales, our resale forecast for the next two years suggest more activity than the level recorded in 2006 – which was considered a strong year for existing home market activity. In addition to healthy full-time employment growth, the strong real income gains – as measured by the average weekly earnings – will help sustain the resale market.
More Balanced Market Conditions Will Slow Price Growth
Moishe Alexander says There has been strong price growth in the resale market in recent years, especially during the 2003 to 2005 period when the market saw a double digit increase. With moderating sales activity coupled with an increasing supply of new listings, price increases will not be as brisk in 2009. However, average MLS price increase will remain strong at 4.6 per cent in 2008 before dropping to 1.9 per cent in 2009.
As a leading predictor of future average MLS price increases, the current sales-to-new listings ratio is pointing toward a more balanced market condition in the entire Kingston CMA. Since 2000 the salesto-new listings ratio has been held firmly in the sellers’ territory. However, toward the end of 2008 we anticipate new listings to reach a record high of 6985 units, pulling down the sales-to-new listings ratio to 0.51 from 0.56 in 2007.
A drop in the ratio generally means a slow average MLS price increase ahead – which is in conformity with our forecast for 2008 and 2009.
The Economy
Employment Growth Is Brighter in 2009
Moishe Alexander says Employment growth in Kingston is forecast to slow to 0.6 per cent in 2008, as further manufacturing and accommodation job losses are combined with declining retail trade sector activity. However, the em-ployment outlook is slightly brighter in 2009 for two main reasons. First, both the health care and public administration sectors will boost overall labour market activity and, second, the manufacturing sector will finally begin a gradual recovery due to strengthening U.S. dollar visà-vis the Canadian dollar. The number of people employed in 2009 is expected to increase by 0.9 per cent.
A diversified economy and the expected decline in the Canadian dollar will help protect Kingston from a deep economic slowdown. Continued economic growth will translate into job gains for Kingstonians and relatively low unemployment rate. Due to the aging population, a shortage of skilled labour in key industries will put upward pressure on wages. The resulting wage gains coupled with declining mortgage rates should have a positive impact on the demand for both existing and new homes.
Construction Sector Growth Solid
Moishe Alexander says Construction sector employment is expected to finish 2008 with positive job gains of 13 per cent. However, growth will be held back in 2009 almost entirely from the residential sector, as the housing market cools off.
Moreover, non-residential investment remains strong due in part to several ongoing projects. For instance, the phase 1 of the $230 million Queen’s Centre construction is still underway and is scheduled for completion in September of 2009. Notwithstanding the gains from nonresidential activity, the construction sector suffered a setback as a result of the decision to postpone the opening of the Ethanol plant in Kingston later this year. The West Kingston Ethanol plant is not anticipated to open but until the spring of 2010.
Mortgage Rates
Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.
You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64335/64335_2008_B02.pdf
Posted: February 24, 2009 at 7:18 pm | Tags: activity, Alexander, canadian funding corp, canadian funding corporation, cent, construction, demand, economy, employment, growth, home, Housing Market, market, Moishe, moishe alexander, North Monaghan, Ontario, Peterborough, Peterborough City, price, region, review, South Monaghan, Toronto, Township, US
February 24, 2009 — Moishe Alexander’s review on how the current world economy and Canadian economic turndown is affecting Peterborough Housing Market
Moishe Alexander’s Review
New Home Market
Slowdown of New Housing Market
Peterborough - Credit Bobolink, Flickr Creative Commons
Moishe Alexander says Activity in the new housing market in Peterborough will moderate over the remainder of 2008 and in 2009. This pullback will be due to past price gains, an abundant selection of homes for sale in the resale market, and to some extent the economic slowdown. Though Peterborough’s economy is not as export-dependent as other regions, it will be somewhat affected by the strong Canadian dollar and trends in the U.S. economy. Starts will total 430 units by the end of 2008 and 410 units in 2009. Single-detached homes will continue being the pillar of home construction, with dominant shares of 74 percent and 76 percent over 2008 and 2009 respectively. Meanwhile, rowhouses will account for 14 per cent of total starts and will register total of 65 units and 56 units in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Apartment construction will remain stable at 40 units for both 2008 and 2009. While the Peterborough Metropolitan Area (CMA) covers the regions of Peterborough City, Otonabee-South Monaghan Township, Cavan-Millbrook-North Monaghan Township, Douro-Dummer Township and Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield Township, Peterborough City accounts more than two thirds of new construction in the area.
Moishe Alexander says The average price of single-detached homes increased rapidly in the past several years, pulled up by the construction of more high value homes. In 2009, the average price of a newly absorbed single-detached home is expected to rise to $362,000, 2 per cent up from an estimated $355,000 in 2008.
Resale Market
Resale Market Cooling Off
Moishe Alexander says Sales of existing housing are expected to moderate by 5 per cent in 2008, to 2,750 units and by another 7 per cent in 2009. Demand will soften as employment growth slows.
Sales will decrease because fewer renters will make the move to ownership. The average price has increased quite strongly over the last few years. At the same time, part-time employment has increased faster than full-time job creation.
Moishe Alexander says This has made the decision to rent more attractive than home ownership for some households. With fewer renters becoming owners, the vacancy rate will decrease and rental costs will inch higher over the next two years.
Moishe Alexander says The strong increase in prices has drawn more sellers to the market. As a result, new listings will reach 5,300 units in 2008 from 5,085 in 2007, before declining to 5,200 units in 2009. The decrease in sales of existing homes and the increase in the listings will push the sales to new listings ratio downward, indicating balance between demand and supply in this market.
Moishe Alexander says Overall, despite the slowdown in activity, the housing market in this region is still healthy, in part, because housing prices in Peterborough continue to be much lower than in surrounding markets. The price differential continues to attract people to the region.
Economic Trends
Healthy Local Economic Conditions
Moishe Alexander says The majority of the population growth in Peterborough is occurring in two age groups: 20-24 and 45-64. In years to come growth in these significant age cohorts will continue to bolster housing demand as these two groups are associated with firsttime or repeat home buying.
Moishe Alexander says The Peterborough region is expected to benefit from several projects financed by the public and private sectors. The projects will have a positive impact on job growth, especially in the construction and service sectors. As the biggest employer in the region with more than 2000 employees, the health centre, which moved to a new facility in June 2008, is expected to increase its number of workers over the next two years. Furthermore, Peterborough will benefit from the financial contribution from three levels of the government to help with different projects for infrastructure needs and businesses growth, including projects such as the proposed rail transportation link from Peterborough to Toronto. Nearly 80 per cent of employment in Peterborough is in the services sector. The services sector will continue to expand, taking advantage of the high investment in support of the aging population and the increased hiring of mature part-time employees. Yet, this strength in the services industry will not completely offset changes in full-time employment in the goods-producing sectors. Therefore, employment is expected to grow modestly by 0.3 per cent to 56,800 and by 0.5 per cent to 57,100 in 2008 and 2009 respectively.
Mortgage Rates
Moishe Alexander says Mortgage rates are expected to be relatively stable throughout the last quarter of this year, remaining within 25-50 basis points of their current levels. Posted mortgage rates will decrease slightly in the first half of 2009 as the cost of credit to financial institutions eases. Rising bond yields, however, will nudge mortgage rates marginally higher in the latter half 2009. For the last quarter of 2008 and in 2009, the one year posted mortgage rate will be in the 6.00-6.75 per cent range, while three and five year posted mortgage rates are forecast to be in the 6.50-7.25 per cent range.
You can find the entire report in PDF format through the following link:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/65716/65716_2008_B02.pdf